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by talker
Written by Stephen Beach, via SWNS
Thanks to healthy diets, medical advances, and other improvements, human lifespans increased rapidly during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
Some scientists even predicted in 1990 that this rapid increase would continue, leading to a “rapid increase in life expectancy” beyond 100 years.
But a new analysis published in the journal Nature Aging suggests that humans may be nearing the end of their lifespans.
The rate of increase in longevity nearly doubled throughout the 20th century, but has slowed “significantly” over the past 30 years, according to a US research team.
They found that despite frequent advances in medicine and public health, life expectancy at birth for the world’s longest-lived people has increased by an average of only 6.5 years since 1990.
This rate of improvement is far below the expectations of some scientists, who predict that life expectancy will increase at an accelerated pace in the 21st century, with most people born today living to be 100 years old.
This research suggests that humans are nearing the biological limits of life.
Matthew McQuarrie
by talker
He said the deleterious effects of aging remained the main obstacle to further extension.
“Most people who are now living into old age are living according to medically determined schedules,” Olshansky said.
“But these medical band-aids are shortening lifespans, albeit at an accelerated pace, as it has been documented that the period of rapid increase in life expectancy is already over. It means that
This also means that even if we reduce disease and further increase life expectancy, those extra years could be harmful if they aren’t healthy years, he says.
“We should now shift our focus to efforts to slow aging and extend healthy lifespans,” Olshansky said.
He explained that “healthy life expectancy” is a relatively new metric that measures the number of years a person stays healthy, not just alive.
The analysis, conducted in collaboration with researchers from the University of Hawaii, Harvard University, and UCLA, is the latest chapter in a 30-year debate over the potential limits to human lifespan.
In 1990, Olshansky published a paper in the journal Science arguing that humans were approaching the upper limit of life expectancy of about 85 years and that the most important advances had already been made.
(Photo credit: Yan Krukau, via Pexels)
Some predicted that advances in medicine and public health would accelerate 20th century trends into the 21st century.
However, 34 years later, evidence reported in the 2024 Nature Aging study supports the idea that growth in life expectancy will continue to slow as more people are exposed to the negative effects of aging.
The study looked at data from eight countries with high longevity, Hong Kong, and the United States. The United States was one of the few countries to see a decline in life expectancy during the study period.
Professor Olshansky said: “Our findings show that our species is very close to enjoying a natural long lifespan – exceeding our average lifespan today. This overturns the conventional wisdom.
“Rather, it is in our past, somewhere in the range of 30 to 60 years.
“Despite medical advances occurring at breakneck speed, modern medicine has proven to have a progressively smaller effect on lifespan improvements.”
Although more people may reach age 100 or older this century, he says they will still be “outliers” and will not significantly increase life expectancy.
This conclusion will push back against products and industries such as insurance and wealth management businesses that base their calculations on the assumption that most people will live to be 100 years old.
“This is very bad advice because only a tiny fraction of the population will live that long this century,” Olshansky said.
But he says the findings don’t rule out the possibility that medicine and science could generate further benefits.
Rather than extending lifespans, Olshanski says improving quality of life in later life may be a more immediate possibility.
The researchers suggest more investment in geriatrics, the biology of aging, where the seeds of the next wave of health and life extension may lie dormant.
Olshansky added: “It’s not a brick wall, it’s a glass ceiling.
“There is a lot of room for improvement: reducing risk factors, working to close disparities, and encouraging people to adopt healthier lifestyles. All of this can help people live longer and healthier lives. Masu.”
“With geriatrics and efforts to slow the effects of aging, we can break through this glass ceiling of health and longevity.”
