The beauty industry is bracing for a busy few weeks ahead of holiday shopping and year-end earnings reports. And even bigger changes are on the horizon. It’s the US presidential election on Tuesday.
Emotions are running high in what is likely to be a close race between the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. But while Tuesday’s results won’t necessarily impact financial markets in the short term, companies will be preparing for potential long-term policy changes and how consumer values intertwine with a brand’s public politics. It is necessary to consider whether
“The immediate outcome of the election is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market,” said Lauren Leibrandt, a director in Baird’s global consumer investment banking group and co-leader of the firm’s beauty and wellness practice. said. “This is a time of heightened emotion, anxiety and uncertainty. We’ve been living in that zone for several years now.”
Beauty and wellness has proven to be a resilient category even in times of uncertainty, and the November election is likely to remain the same.
“There’s no doubt that consumers will be distracted by the election next week, but that doesn’t mean they’ll spend less,” said Paula Floyd, founder and CEO of retail agency Headcount. That’s not the case,” he said. “We can only expect a slowdown in retail activity in major cities if we see an increase in protests as a result of the election results.”
Floyd said HeadCount data shows no signs of a slowdown in beauty sales during election week, especially since Sephora’s Beauty Insider sales event begins the first week of November.
However, beauty consumers often base their beauty purchases on values. That could put brands in a tight spot in terms of whether to respond to or ignore the tense political environment.
“Brands run the risk of alienating some consumers by taking too many political stances, but we also see a tendency for consumers to buy brands that closely align with their values. ,” Leibrandt said. “So, sometimes. Complete silence isn’t enough. It’s a difficult needle to thread.”
In October, Glossier ran a full-page ad in the New York Times urging readers to vote. The ad did not endorse either candidate, but implied voting for women’s reproductive rights. Comments on the Instagram Glossier post introducing the ad were polarized, with followers expressing support for both Harris and Trump. Tower28, a beauty brand popular with Gen Z, also shared a call to action on Instagram, asking viewers to register to vote between September and October. Sexual wellness brand Winx launched a “Vote with your v@g” sweatshirt in October to encourage viewers to vote in elections.
Glossier CEO Kyle Leahy said the brand plans to run digital billboard ads through Election Day in key battleground states including Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “At a time when women’s rights are being challenged at the federal and state level, it was important for our brand to use our platform to tap into the power of our engaged young audience, who make up an important voting base. We recognize that and we have a responsibility and a privilege to do everything we can to make an impact,” Leahy told The Glossy. “We ended up with a concept that was clear, concise, and felt resonated with the Glossier community, tapping into the emotional side of why people vote.”
On a policy level, both Harris and Trump are known figures in the White House and are unlikely to offer any surprises, Leibrandt said. But tariffs are probably the biggest concern for companies preparing for the new administration. President Trump has promised to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports, which could raise the tax rate on products from China to 60%. Affordable beauty brand Elf has already announced that it will raise its prices to compensate for the increased tariffs if President Trump takes office again in 2025.
“The threat of higher tariffs is definitely something that businesses are watching closely,” Leibrandt said. “Certainly, companies have had to pass on price increases due to tariff increases in the past (to customers).”
And cosmetics makers are still battling evolving regulations introduced by the outgoing administration. In December 2022, President Biden signed the Cosmetic Regulatory Modernization Act, giving the FDA new oversight powers in cosmetic safety management. Implementation of this law is still in progress. Starting in July, cosmetics manufacturers will be required to submit a list of their products to the FDA, and in December 2025, the FDA is expected to make a final decision on good manufacturing practices that manufacturers must follow.
However, the 2024 presidential election may not be decided on Tuesday. The 2020 race between Trump and eventual winner Joe Biden was not announced until Saturday, the day after Election Day, leaving voters across the country anxiously waiting. But even uncertainty about potential winners does not necessarily lead to concrete changes in the economy.
“People are probably more in a wait-and-see mode,” Leibrandt said. “I think the talk about the impact of the election is probably greater than the actual impact.”
