With less than two weeks until the election, opinion polls show a close race for the top vote-getters. Opinion polls may be thought of as an indication of what will happen, but they are far from certain.
Don Dugui is a veteran political science professor at Transylvania University. He said pre-election polls could influence the vote, but it was difficult to say which way. And Dougi said there are still limits to the poll results showing that the presidential election is close.
“One of the problems when you say it’s consistent, which I think the latest polls suggest, is that it ignores the possibility of error,” Dougi said.
And Dougi pointed out that plus or minus 3% could actually mean a 6% change. Professor Trancy added that there were hidden errors in the polls. Noncoverage, nonresponse, and measurement error. And Dougi says so-called late decision-makers could influence the outcome.
A few years ago Gallup and Roper were the polling agencies, but now there are many.
“What people forget is that these are made for profit. So like anything else business-driven, there’s going to be a business mindset associated with it. So the results. As such, the more the better, it tends to happen,” Dugi said.
The types of polls have changed over the years. Dugi said door-to-door canvassing has been moved from telephone to online. And Professor Trancy said each had their own problems. Dougi said he was unlikely to answer the phone today and that online voting is problematic because the demographics skew more toward college-educated, older voters.
Dugi said another problem lies in the fact that about 40% of voters are likely not to vote. So the problem is predicting who will turn out to vote, he said.
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