Donald Trump is winning political debates on the economy, war, immigration, and sexuality pedagogy. Kamala Harris wins the personality argument that President Trump does not have the temperament for public office. As voting progresses in America, political arguments seem to be getting stronger than personality arguments.
Kamala Harris wins on the personality theory that President Trump does not have the temperament for public office. (AP)
Last week, HT traveled to two battleground states and six urban and rural counties, interviewing nearly 150 voters across ethnic, gender and generational lines.
The polarization of American society and the peculiarities of the American electoral system mean that both candidates, who already have about 47% of the vote, will win a share in red and blue states. Therefore, even before the battle for 270 electoral votes begins, it can be safely assumed that each side will have about 220 electoral votes each. This article is not an essay predicting an outcome that depends on a limited number of variables, such as the mood or turnout of a limited number of voters in a limited area. Instead, it’s a broad assessment of the mood on the ground, based on conversations among Americans with 10 days left until voting ends.
Four issues are driving the Trump campaign.
The first is the economy. Reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s earlier presidential campaign, Republicans are asking voters a simple question: Are we better now than we were four years ago? For most people, the answer is no. The main reason is due to a combination of food, gas, and housing prices. The Joe Biden-Harris administration has achieved the strongest economic performance in recent history, including high employment and record manufacturing. But the cost of living crisis, and the fact that President Trump is more closely tied to US employment policy, means Democrats are unable to take credit. Indeed, it’s almost annoying when someone tells you that if the Democrats hadn’t done everything they were supposed to do, you would have been in a much worse situation, when your wallet doesn’t reflect that. . And Harris’ promise of more help to address costs rings hollow in the words of the quasi-incumbent. The bottom line for many voters is that Trump was better for the economy.
The second is immigration. The Republican message on the ground is simple. Should the US open its borders? Isn’t illegal immigration rapidly increasing? Isn’t this dangerous? The answer for most voters is that the United States should have secure borders, people should not be able to enter the country illegally, and yes, illegal immigration is surging, but that’s not true. No. Trump’s association with anti-immigrant policies allows him to position himself as a leader who understands and can solve problems. Democrats rightly claim that President Trump forced the border bill through, but that makes him appear to be the central figure in solving the problem. Democrats hope their position will help win over legal immigrant votes and help voters see the racism behind President Trump’s rhetoric. That’s largely true, but it’s also true that legal immigrants are happy to shut the door. In short, immigration is a top issue, and President Trump is seen as diagnosing it, articulating it, and positioning himself as the key to solving it.
The third problem is war. Again, the Republican argument is simple. Did Russia attack Ukraine under the Trump administration? Is Europe’s security the responsibility of the United States? Did Hamas launch terrorist attacks against Israel under the Trump administration? Did Iranian proxies destabilize West Asia under the Trump administration? Did they withdraw from Afghanistan? Has America been involved in so many foreign wars under the Trump administration? As simple as it may be, the answer is no. If the answer is no, the Republican message moves seamlessly to the next step. Only a strong leader like Trump can keep America out of war and restore order. The undertone is often that Biden created chaos, but women leaders cannot bring peace. Democrats are asking why Ukraine is important, why Trump made the mistake of withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, how the US has supported Israel, and whether the withdrawal from Afghanistan was due to flaws in the Trump deal. He makes a nuanced argument about why Europe is important to U.S. security. , about how American troops aren’t fighting any wars, and how America’s prestige will be undermined under the Trump administration. But for voters, the bottom line is that Trump kept the peace, and Biden didn’t.
The fourth issue can be broadly summarized as changes in cultural and sexual mores that much of America is still grappling with. The Republican message is once again simple. Aren’t there only two genders, male and female? Should men play women’s sports? Should teachers and schools be allowed to bring sexual orientation into elementary and middle schools? Did you know that if your child has sex reassignment surgery, it could come back someday? The crude and wrong approach is to ensure that parents do not lose control over their children, that children do not come back from gender reassignment surgery, and that conversations around sexuality normalize different types of sexual orientation. It makes it unclear what the purpose is. A portrait of a family living in American society. But examples of information overload and misinformation raise some of the most basic fears a parent can have. Although Democrats have expressed solidarity with the broader community of sexual minorities, they have not done the work needed to prepare society and are currently leaving the Republican challenge unresolved. The bottom line is that many people are uncomfortable with sexuality pedagogy, and President Trump is using it in politically advantageous ways.
Democrats know they are not winning political debates on these issues. That’s why, in the last two weeks, they doubled down on the only political issue on which they have an advantage: abortion rights, but focused primarily on individual-centered arguments.
Their argument is simple. Trump is extreme, unstable, and becoming more liberal with age, his top advisers and generals call him a fascist, the former vice president does not support him, and this man cannot be trusted. Power is unchecked, and both America’s constitutionalism and democracy are at risk. This resonates with many voters who are concerned about the dangers President Trump represents, even if they agree with some of his policies. Republicans, in turn, told their base that Trump’s character was evidence of his nonconformism, while telling undecided voters to ignore Trump’s rhetoric and pepper it with revisionist history. They are trying to persuade Trump that we should look back on his record.
Trump’s politics are advantageous on the ground. The election now hinges on whether Trump’s personality will earn him 270 votes or prevent him from doing so.
