When Sen. Max Baucus, a Democratic and political heavyweight in Montana, was reelected to a sixth term in 2008, the governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state auditor, and superintendent were elected by a statewide vote. won all positions. By fellow Democrats. A lone Republican won the state’s only seat in the House.
Today the situation is very different.
“If Tester loses, everyone will become a Republican,” Baucus said, referring to Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who is fighting to defend his seat in one of the most important races in the country. ” he said. “This is a dramatic change.”
It’s not just Montana. Other Great Plains states, once strongholds of progressive prairie populism, have experienced intense partisan conflict within their congressional delegations over the past two decades, moving almost entirely out of Democratic control.
Just 20 years ago, there were two Democratic senators representing both North and South Dakota, including the party’s Senate majority leader. There were also Democratic House members in each state. Nebraska used to have one Democratic senator, but just a few years ago it had two Democratic senators. Currently, all of these states’ congressional representatives are Republicans.
Byron Dorgan, a former Democratic state senator from North Dakota who retired in 2010 after serving three terms in the Senate and winning 11 statewide elections, said, “In some cases, I’m a district. Sometimes we don’t even realize it.” “The people elected me to the House and Senate for 30 years, and I don’t think my district at that time ever imagined that someone like Donald Trump would ascend to the White House.”
Democrats were able to make up for losses in once-contested seats by tightening their grip on Senate seats in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona, which are up for grabs this year, but are locked out of the House. The outlook is grim. The Great Plains has long been a significant hurdle for Democrats in securing and maintaining a parliamentary majority.
They see the race involving Tester, a third-generation farmer with deep roots in Montana, as a test of whether Democrats can bridge the urban-rural divide. Democrats, who once held Republican seats, attribute the change to a variety of factors, including an exodus of younger residents to densely populated areas. They also believe that the feeling that the federal government and the liberal forces they see running it are not on their side and not acting in their interests continues to sway older voters. It also points out that it is deeply rooted.
Tom Daschle, a former South Dakota state senator who served as both minority and majority leader until his narrow defeat in 2004, said that Democrats are increasingly perceived as elite and have little control over urban issues. I’m dedicated to it,” he said. The perception of America, where “national Democratic candidates rarely spend time in local areas,” and its “viaducts” continues to increase this perception of division. ”
This disconnect is as much cultural as it is political.
“These are landlocked states, and a lot of people in the interior don’t trust the coastal elites,” said Baucus, who served as U.S. ambassador to China after leaving the Senate. “I feel like it’s kind of being forced upon me, and I feel like no one cares.”
The former senators also said their political focus on divisive social issues has been exacerbated by the explosion of social media and Republicans’ success in exploiting the culture wars, although debates on abortion tend to boost Democratic support. I believe that this is the main factor behind the switch to the Republican Party. Popular among women.
“Voters turned away from the party because, in their minds, the party was not paying enough attention to the needs of working families and middle-income Americans, was meddling in social issues, “I think it was because they thought they were making a last stand in a way,” said Ben Nelson, a former Nebraska governor who served as the state’s most recent Democratic senator before retiring in 2012.
Perhaps most frustrating for Democrats is that rural voters don’t see the government or the Democratic Party as allies, even though Democrats have supported programs that are a lifeline to rural America, especially farm aid. .
“Rural people are advocating for things that can improve their lives, like expanding Medicaid, raising the minimum wage, child tax credits, and many other policy measures, and yet Democrats “I don’t think we’re addressing the disparities,” Daschle said.
Mr. Dorgan, a former colleague in the Senate leadership, expressed a similar view. “I don’t think they see much of a future,” he said of rural voters who supported Republicans and Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda. “The Republican Party’s relentless attacks on the government have continued for a long time.”
Beyond Tester, Democrats see a chance to regain a foothold on the Great Plains in the Nov. 5 election. The party has competitive House races in both Nebraska and Montana, aiming to unseat Republican incumbents. And in Nebraska’s Senate race, independent Dan Osborn is mounting a populist challenge to Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The NDP has denied any involvement in the campaign, but hopes to work with him to control the Senate if he wins.
Add to that the fact that Tester is seeking a fourth term in a state that has shifted sharply to the right. Unlike other rural states, Montana’s growth has been driven not by an exodus of voters, but by a steady influx of new conservative residents who are more aligned with the MAGA movement. Democrats suspect that these voters are unflinching Republicans who strongly support Trump and are not familiar with or interested in Tester’s long history in the state or Montana’s tradition of political independence. I am concerned that this may not be the case.
“They don’t know John and he’s a Republican,” Baucus said.
Tester described his opponent, Tim Sheehy, as a military veteran and businessman who moved to the state 10 years ago, typical of the newcomers that many longtime Montanans resent. In other words, he is trying to characterize them as typical of wealthy immigrants who suddenly arrive and help drive cars. They pay top dollar for huge ranches, inflate housing prices, and close off public access for hunting and recreation.
“Ultimately, as long as there are people who come to this state and have hundreds of millions of dollars in their bank accounts, and they want to make Montana a playground for the rich, we’re working class It’s hard to keep people housed,” Tester slammed Sheehy in their second and final debate last month.
Mr. Sheehy countered that he and other new immigrants contributed to the state’s prosperity.
“The truth is, I wasn’t lucky enough to be born in Montana,” Sheehy said. “I think I wanted to be that way too. When I crawled out of my mother’s womb, I had no control over where her womb was.” “But when my wife and I left the service and put down roots here. , we are proud to have created hundreds of jobs to build a company and invest in the betterment of our communities,” he added.
Tester’s supporters say if any Democrat can hold out in this environment, it should be him. His rural background is emphasized by the fact that he is missing three fingers on his left hand – which he proudly claims he lost in the meat grinder. I still own it. They believe pedigree should counter Republican attacks that he has “left Washington.” But they fear it won’t be enough.
Nelson, a former Nebraska governor, described Tester’s personality as saying, “For someone who doesn’t have a haircut, doesn’t have a haircut that sticks out of his belt, and is still a farmer, the things that are said about him probably don’t make a lot of sense.” he said while doing so. exterior. “But until Democrats — and this could be the year to do it — can convince enough people about support for working families, we will continue to be at risk.”
