The weight of peer pressure
An analysis of national survey data found that obese people (BMI over 30) generally fared better in counties with higher obesity rates. Specifically, in high-obesity counties, obese people were no more likely than nonobese people to be single or unemployed, and they were only slightly more likely to report poor health. This suggests that weight stigma is more severe in regions with lower obesity rates, explaining some of the negative effects of obesity.
Berkessel, J. et al., “On the unequal burden of obesity: The negative effects of obesity depend on local obesity prevalence,” Psychological Science (forthcoming).
Demographics aren’t everything
There is a tradition of experts making long-term election predictions based on demographic trends. There were even two books published decades apart under the titles “The Emerging Republican Majority” and “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” But new research shows the folly of using demographics to predict non-election outcomes in the near future. The study, which looked back at elections since 1952, found that predicting future elections approximately 50-50 is more accurate than trying to predict elections based on voting demographics in past elections. is shown. The reason is essentially that parties adapt their positions over time in response to demographic changes.
Calvo, R. et al., “The Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasting for U.S. Elections,” National Bureau of Economic Research (October 2024).
smart lobbyist
The Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007 increased restrictions on lobbyists, including former Congressional staff. One of its provisions would make it easier to enforce a one-year ban on lobbying for retired officials whose pre-retirement salaries exceeded 75 percent of the lawmaker’s income. But a recent study found that many employees, particularly those on committees and the Senate, where lobbyists are particularly valuable, are paid just below the threshold. And indeed, payroll records show that many staff members have received minimal raises or pay cuts in order to maintain or fall below thresholds, which could potentially lead to these staff being employed as lobbyists. It has been suggested that this has led to an increase in wages.
Wirsching, E., “K-Street Sorting: Post-Hire Regulation and Strategic Wage Setting in Congress,” Journal of Politics (forthcoming).
Service inheritance
Those who were able to join the U.S. Army because they scored slightly above the military qualification test score were far more likely to have children who served in the military as well. This effect was concentrated among black families and stronger among children of the same sex as the drafted parent. That was explained, at least in part, by the increased income the service provided to enlisted parents.
Greenberg, K. et al., “Intergenerational Transmission of Occupation: Lessons from the U.S. Army,” National Bureau of Economic Research (September 2024).
