Political data experts discuss what drives voters to vote
Updated: October 29, 2024 10:02pm PDT
We treat their addictions not only here in California, but of course all across the country. Millions of voters have already cast their votes. Dozens of counties across the state have now opened voting centers. By Paul Mitchell, Political Data tracks early voting trends. Paul, thank you for being with us tonight. Thank you for having me. Okay, let’s get straight to the point. So about 4.5 million votes have already been cast. In other words, how does the situation at this point before the election compare to other recent elections? In other words, it will far exceed current expectations for the 2022 gubernatorial election. But of course turnout was low. And that number is far fewer than the number cast at this point in the 2020 election. But remember how different 2020 was? It was in the middle of a coronavirus lockdown. Our ballots won’t hang on the kitchen counter forever. In fact, it felt like we were being taken to the polling station or taken to the mailbox, and it was like a chance to get out of the house. Early voting was truly overwhelming. 2020. That doesn’t mean these voters won’t go to the polls. I think many of them will vote later. Turnout is probably still around 75-78%, but probably not as high as 80% in 2020. Therefore, most participants will vote this week. Obviously, there is a lot of interest in the presidential election, especially since the race is so close. But what are some of the other issues that drive voters to vote and fill out their ballots? Yeah. So in some elections, like the 2022 election, the abortion voting bill, Proposition 1, actually drove a lot of turnout. Even though we didn’t have a lot of votes this term in terms of competition, we did see some places where turnout really peaked because of this voting measure. The presidential election is everything and ends everything. That’s the headliner. There are voting laws, like Proposition 36, that people feel strongly about, but most people will vote for. Proposition 36 would have already been elected president. And here in Sacramento, something like a mayoral election is being held. There may be some voters who aren’t that excited about the presidential election who go to vote for mayor, but I would say those people are really few and far between. It’s actually almost entirely about the presidential election. And we need to remind people that Proposition 36, dealing with criminal justice, is a big issue right now. Yeah, I mean, what are the patterns we’re seeing in voter registration right now, because the Republicans have been trying to spread that benefit across the state. But in the big picture, how important is it or isn’t it? In presidential election years, both types of voters become more partisan, with more people registering as Democrats and Republicans, and presidential primaries always see big increases, especially among Republicans. . Ed presidential primary election. You must be a registered Republican to vote in that primary. And we’re seeing a big wave of Republican registration. But overall, for all 22.5 million voters statewide, Republicans gained 1 percentage point in statewide registration. That means they now make up 25% of registered voters. You know, Paul, I always wonder, because here in California, independent voters make up a big pie. When we actually do the exit polls, we see how people who are registered as independents actually vote, but does that reflect the other numbers we’re seeing? Now, independent What’s interesting about independents is that depending on where you are, they can be more republican or more democratic. Like Placer County, they will defeat even more republicans. But in Marin, they intend to destroy more democratically. Statewide, about two-thirds of voters lean Democratic. And one-third lean toward Republicans. One thing that many viewers may not know is that if a viewer is registered and independent, companies like PDI and our voter data company will tell you that this person was once a Democrat. That is, or that you may actually find out that you were once a Republican. . So campaigns will treat them the same as Democrats and Republicans. Their voter records will display a small flag indicating that they have donated to Democratic campaigns or were once Democrats. So we would treat them the same as Democrats in terms of targeting and turnout. Understood. We’re just here on election night, do you think we’ll get an answer on November 5th, or do you think it’s going to take a while? I think there are many answers. But as we’ve seen, the way ballots are counted is that all early votes are counted first. Then they would count the nights. They will count the votes cast at the polling station. People going to voting centers. And within days, millions of ballots will be counted. In some cases, it could take weeks after the election. Some races are very close and may not be known for several weeks, but I think the majority will be known on election night with a decisive victory. Understood. Okay. It’s Paul Mitchell’s season. Thank you for your understanding. Thank you for having me. That’s always the case. Yeah. If you haven’t voted yet in this year’s election, there are several ways to do so. Ballots can be returned by mail. Ballots include prepaid shipping, so there is no need to purchase stamps. Votes must be postmarked by Nov. 5 to be counted. You can also return your ballot directly to a ballot drop box. A polling place or county election office. You must do so by 8 p.m. on Nov. 5, and you can track your ballot online through the Secretary of State’s Office. Voter C
Political data experts discuss what drives voters to vote
Updated: October 29, 2024 10:02pm PDT
Millions of voters in California and across the country have already cast their ballots a week before Election Day. Political Data’s Paul Mitchell joined KCRA on Tuesday to discuss early voting turnout, key issues drawing voters to the polls, and registration patterns. Mitchell noted that early voting numbers aren’t as high as they were in 2020, but that’s because times were very different. “It was during the coronavirus lockdown. Our ballots weren’t hanging on the kitchen counter forever. We were actually taking them to the polling place, I would take it to the drop box and it was like a chance to get out of the house,” Mitchell said. “So early voting was really overwhelming in 2020,” Mitchell said, adding that while turnout for this election is still around 75% to 78%, he doesn’t think it will reach the 80% turnout of 2020. There is. Although it is the presidential election that actually attracts voters, Mitchell said: California Proposition 36 is one of the issues capturing the attention of voters. The mayor’s race is also important in Sacramento. Mitchell believes some races will have a clear front-runner on election night, while others could take weeks to decide. “First, they’re going to count all the early votes. Then they’re going to do the next thing,” counting the votes cast at the polling places, the people who go to the polls, into the night. And within a few days, there will be a huge number of ballots, millions of ballots. “Maybe it will take a few weeks after the election,” he said. “Some races are so close that we may not know for a few weeks. But I think most races will really be known on election night with a decisive victory.” Including key issues and more , for more information about the November elections. Check out the KCRA 3 Voter Guide for information on races on your ballot. For more political news from the national team, click here.
Millions of voters in California and across the country have already cast their ballots a week before Election Day.
Political Data’s Paul Mitchell joined KCRA on Tuesday to discuss early voting turnout, key issues driving voters to the polls, and registration patterns.
Mitchell noted that early voting rates aren’t as high as they were in 2020, but that’s because it was a much different time.
“It was during the coronavirus lockdown. Our ballots weren’t hanging on the kitchen counter forever. We were actually taking them to the polling place, I would take it to the drop box and it was like a chance to get out of the house,” Mitchell said. “So early voting in 2020 was really overwhelming.”
Mitchell said he expects voter turnout in this election to still be around 75% to 78%, but it won’t reach the 80% turnout in 2020.
Although it’s the presidential election that actually attracts voters, Mitchell pointed out that Proposition 36 is one of the issues drawing voters’ attention in California. The mayoral race is also important in Sacramento.
Mitchell believes some races will have a clear front-runner on election night, while others will take weeks to decide.
“First, they’re going to count all the early votes. Then they’re going to count the votes that were cast at the polling places, the people who go to the polls, into the night. And then they’re going to count the votes that were cast at the polling places, people going to the polls, into the night. And then they’re going to count a lot of votes, hundreds of 10,000 votes will be counted within days, and in some cases it could take weeks after the election, he said. “Some races are so close that we may not know for several weeks. But I think most races will be known with decisive victories on election night.”
For more information about the November election, including key issues and other races on the ballot, check out the KCRA 3 Voter Guide.
Read more political news from the national team here.
