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It’s officially the final month of the 2024 presidential election, which has felt like a madhouse for months.
Americans watched as a sitting Democratic president withdrew from the race, a Republican candidate narrowly escaped an assassination attempt, and the first woman of color to win a ticket to America rose to power. I witnessed it.
Where are candidates spending their money?
Money isn’t everything in politics, but it’s certainly not nothing. Where campaigns, and the super PACs that support them, spend their money is, above all, a good indicator of where the opportunities lie.
CNN’s David Wright tracks spending, and when I asked him where the money was going in the final months of the ad wars, he sent me this message:
See how each side is betting on the best path to winning 270 electoral votes. In the first week of October, the (Kamala) Harris campaign is spending the most in three key “blue wall” states. More than $5 million is reserved in Pennsylvania, about $4 million in Michigan, and about $2.7 million more is reserved. There were 1 million reservations in Wisconsin. And it makes sense. If Harris wins all three states, plus an easy-to-win Nebraska election in the swing 2nd Congressional District (where more than $300,000 in advertising has been spent this week) If she wins the popular vote, she will become the next president.
Meanwhile, the (Donald) Trump campaign is focused on the Sunbelt. This week, the Trump campaign is spending the most on advertising in Pennsylvania, at $3.8 million, which is a key part of both strategies. But on top of that, the campaign has spent $3.4 million on North Carolina and nearly $3 million on its other top target, Georgia, and wins in those two states and Pennsylvania would put it back in the White House. It turns out.
Policy proposals were developed and candidates tried to define each other. Now it’s time to get the voter to the polling place or mailbox.
Early voting and voting by mail have already begun in many parts of the country, but early voting is not expected to reach the same levels as during the 2020 pandemic election. President Trump remains skeptical of mail-in voting, but Republicans are implementing it in key states this year to keep pace with Democrats who have embraced it.
As CNN’s Steve Contorno and Fredreka Shorten report, some Republicans are questioning other elements of Trump’s get-out-the-vote strategy. Instead of knocking on doors in key states, Trump’s allies are using funding from tech billionaire Elon Musk for nontraditional efforts.
Contorno and Schouten write:
Targeting undocumented voters, instructing his supporters to monitor polling places, and filing voting-related lawsuits in each state — this is the system the Trump campaign has built for the election, with a total of 10,000 votes cast in seven battleground states. Many predict that it will depend on only tens of thousands of votes. The Trump campaign has acknowledged internally that this is a gamble, but claims it is built on data collected over nearly a decade and tested over the past six months.
Read the full report.
Harris has supporters on the left and the right.
Prominent supporters such as popular former Democratic President Barack Obama will be on hand to appeal to the party’s base. CNN reports that President Obama is planning a 27-day blitzkrieg against Harris. He appears at events and lends his name to emails and fundraising materials.
Meanwhile, disaffected anti-Trump Republicans like former Rep. Liz Cheney are backing Harris, hoping to appeal to moderates, independents and even Republicans who want to break away from Trump. Probably.
Trump will receive a bold endorsement from the world’s richest man, Musk, who will attend a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday at the site where he was shot in the ear by a would-be assassin in July. It’s planned.
However, there are few agents that President Trump can rely on. Former Republican President George W. Bush has not been a vocal supporter, and Vice President Dick Cheney has said he will vote for Harris. The party has changed so much that Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney probably won’t be welcome at Mr. Trump’s rallies.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates could make money more accessible and allow people to buy homes and cars with more confidence. September’s strong employment report suggests that people who want jobs can get them. The East Coast longshoremen’s strike will not last long and will not become the issue it was supposed to be in the election campaign.
But some things will still be much more expensive on Election Day than they were under President Trump. And with oil prices likely to rise over the next month, voters are feeling the pinch.
Amy Walter of Cook Political Report says that while the big swing toward Harris in summer polls has stalled, there is some evidence that Americans’ perceptions of the economy are changing. On CNN’s “Inside Politics,” she discussed the Cook poll, which shows no change in the overall race forecast for 2024, but a deep shift among key voters in key states. Trump’s lead on who voters trust to fight inflation has disappeared. His lead on immigration is small.
“Voters don’t feel good about the economy, but they are less pessimistic about the economy,” Walter said. Voters who feel “fair” about the economy seem to be feeling better about Harris, she said.
Notice the “meh” votes.
North Carolina and Georgia are both key voting states and major disaster areas from Hurricane Helen.
Rescue workers continue to search for missing people, mainly in rural parts of North Carolina where aid has been cut off due to floods. As the humanitarian story unfolds, there will come a time when it is appropriate for those who have lost their homes and had their roads washed away to start considering whether their voices can be heard. Election officials are already campaigning, but the situation could create another point of contention as Mr. Trump questions the process and results in key states.
RELATED: Read more about relief efforts in North Carolina as Helen’s survivors move closer to being found.
The Democratic Party has been trying to overcome the rift within the party over the situation in the Middle East. Progressives who want the U.S. to do more for Palestinians were largely sidelined at the Democratic National Convention in August, with Harris voicing her support for Israel and recognition of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. I have worked hard to find a balance.
However, Israel is currently at war with Lebanon to the north and has a missile deal with Iran. It is unclear how or whether the escalation of regional wars in the Middle East will affect the U.S. presidential election, but rifts are smoldering among Democrats, with some dissatisfied with U.S. support That could cause problems, especially in key Michigan. Israel decides not to vote.
It is impossible for President Trump’s federal trial for interference in the 2020 presidential election to end, much less be underway, by the time Election Day approaches. But that does not mean there is no progress in this long-delayed case.
The biggest of these likely occurred on Thursday, when much of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s case was made public by Judge Tanya Chutkan. There were interesting new details in the court filing, but it’s also possible that anger over President Trump’s actions in 2020 is already factored into the voting equation.
More importantly, many of the campaign tactics Smith describes closely resemble the election skepticism that Trump and his allies will deploy in 2024. Read more from CNN’s justice team.
Take a moment and think about your own situation. Are you registered to vote? Do you know how to vote? Many states allow some form of same-day voter registration, but not all states do. Check out CNN’s Voter Handbook for information for your state.
With only a month left until Election Day, that’s a bit wrong. Election Day is definitely here now, as so many Americans have already voted. Furthermore, given the counting of mail-in ballots and the possibility of recounts in states affected by the results, it is likely that we will not know who won the election immediately after polls close on November 5th.
In a development outside of 2024, President Trump was found guilty on Nov. 26 of falsifying business records in New York in connection with a 2016 hush-money payment, and faces sentencing.
No matter what happens in the 2024 election, if Harris wins, Trump is unlikely to accept the result. His allies are preparing for a legal battle to contest the votes and possibly the certification of the election results after Election Day, when electors gather in state capitals to formally cast their electoral votes on Dec. 17. The procedures must be completed by December 11th.
And as we all remember from 2020, this time the electors will be counted in Congress on January 6, 2025, with Vice President Harris presiding. The new president will take the oath of office on January 20, 2025.
This story has been updated with additional details.
