Following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, the political situation in Israel changed significantly among repatriates from the former Soviet Union. A recent poll conducted in collaboration with the Midgham Institute revealed important changes in their political orientation, leadership preferences and pressing concerns. These findings highlight the evolving awareness of this demographic in response to increasing security challenges.
One of the most notable developments is the shift towards right-wing positions. The number of people who identify as “far right” rose from 6.4% before the attack to 7.2% after the attack. The percentage of “right-wing” respondents decreased slightly from 34% to 32.8%, but support for “centre-right” jumped from 24.7% to 28%.
While the number of centrists remained largely unchanged, the total number of “radical left,” “leftist,” and “centre-left” respondents fell from 8.9% to 6.8%. These trends indicate a marked move towards a right-leaning political stance driven primarily by security concerns, a trend that is likely to continue as Israel continues its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. .
Respondents were also asked to share the main influences that shape their political views. The majority (61%) said they independently formed their opinions before and after repatriation. Media also plays an important role, with 26.5% acknowledging the influence of Hebrew-language media and 9.4% citing Russian-language media as influential. Other important factors include family (25.1%) and acquaintances (12.9%), with the proportion attributing opinions to other repatriates from the former Soviet Union (2.8%) and other countries (3.9%). was low.
When it comes to pressing concerns, security topped the list for 63.5% of respondents, followed by economic issues (38.9%). 20.9% were concerned about Israel’s future as a democratic state, followed by personal economic stability (19.9%), Israel’s future as a Jewish state (17.2%), social tensions (15.1%), and trust in state institutions. Other issues were also raised. (11.8%) also said. Only 2.5% said Israel’s position on the Ukraine war was a major concern. Avigdor Liberman speaks at a meeting of the Yisrael Beytenu Party, July 8, 2024 (Credit: Yisrael Beytenu)
Regarding leadership preferences, 57.3% of respondents said Israel needs a strong leader who can make decisive decisions without being influenced by parliament, the media, or public opinion. While 51.2% see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a strong leader, support for the Likud party has fallen sharply. While 23.7% of returnees voted for Likud in 2022, only 11.8% currently plan to support Likud in the next election.
Mr. Liberman is viewed more favorably than Mr. Netanyahu.
Yisrael Beytenu Party leader Avigdor Liberman is viewed more favorably than Prime Minister Netanyahu, with 55.7% of respondents describing him as a strong leader. Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, is not faring much better, with only 23.5% believing he is strong and 63.6% believing he is weak. National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz is seen as moderately strong by 25.7% of respondents, while 36.2% think he is weak.
The favorability ranking showed that 57.3% of respondents expressed a positive opinion of Mr. Liberman, indicating that he was the most rated leader. Prime Minister Netanyahu has the highest disapproval rating, with 66.4% disapproving of him. Gantz and Lapid have moderate favorability ratings of 45.1% and 37.9%, respectively.
Liberman’s favorability rating coincides with increased support for Yisrael Beytenu, currently the most popular party among these returnees, with 30.1% planning to vote for it in the next election. Yes, this is an increase from 20.9% in 2022. Support for Yesh Atid has fallen significantly from 19%. The National Unity Party polled at 13.2%, up from 12.2% in 2022, when Gantz ran jointly with Gideon Saar and the party then called New Hope, compared with 9.8% in the last election. It’s rising. However, Saar is now part of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition government, and his party has limited support, with just 3.1% support among Russian-speaking returnees. It’s staying.
Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, ran in the last election with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party and won 4.6% of the vote in 2022. Their current approval ratings are largely unchanged, as is Mr. Otsma’s. Yehudit’s approval rating was 4%, and the Religious Zionist Party’s approval rating was 0.8%. This is in contrast to the situation with the Meretz Party and the Labor Party, which merged under the leadership of Yair Golan into a new party called the Democratic Party. In the previous election, Mr. Meretz secured 1% and Labor secured 1.6%, but in this poll, the Democratic Party’s vote share is expected to be 2.1%, which is higher than both parties’ share of the vote two years ago. 0.5% lower than the total result.
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Notably, the ultra-Orthodox parties Yitzhak Goldknopf’s United Torah Judaism and Ali Deri’s SHAS are expected to win 1% and 0.5% of the Russian-speaking vote, respectively, in the next election. The point is that This represents a slight decrease from the last election, when United Torah Judaism received 1.4% and Shas 0.7%.
This decline in approval ratings is likely related to their position on the controversial issue of conscription of ultra-Orthodox into the military. It is also important to note that sociologists estimate that Russian-speaking voters account for approximately 14 to 15 delegates in Israeli elections, which is approximately This means that 6.5% to 7% corresponds to one delegate.
79.3% of voters in the former Soviet Union identify as secular, and a further 14% say they are traditional but do not observe the Sabbath. As a result, the overwhelming majority of these returnees do not vote for ultra-Orthodox parties, and support for other coalition parties remains relatively low.
According to the poll, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition government is supported by just 21.2% of these voters, which equates to roughly three mandates. Interestingly, this number is even lower than Netanyahu’s personal favorability rating of 28%.
This discrepancy highlights an important conclusion: likability and personal perceptions of political leaders do not necessarily translate into voting behavior. Respondents may view a particular politician favorably or rate them highly as a leader, but this does not necessarily mean that they will vote for that politician.
Moreover, many opinion polls seen in the media often overlook the important 14-15 mandate represented by Russian-speaking voters, whose preferences have changed dramatically since the last election. . As a result, as the next election approaches, media outlets may once again be caught by surprise as even opinion polls and exit polls fail to account for these mandates that have been quietly operating across the political spectrum. do not have.
The author is a researcher at Hadassah Academic University and former MK Yisrael Beytenu.
