It is called a “red mirage” or “blueshift.”
This is a recent phenomenon in which a clear Republican lead immediately after polls close on election night is erased by the counting of mail-in votes later in the evening or the day after election day.
Former President Donald Trump cited a red mirage to support baseless allegations of election fraud. In practice, this is due to the increase in mail-in voting and the often unique rules regarding when those ballots are counted.
What happened in 2020: On election night 2020, November 3, when most Americans went to bed, the final results were not clear.
It was still too early in the race between then-President Trump and current President Joe Biden to call the key states of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The next few days will be dramatic as they monitor vote counting in those states. Georgia’s vote count did not reflect Biden’s lead until the early morning hours of November 6, but as CNN’s Phil Mattingly showed viewers on the magic wall, a small number of votes were counted. and had an impact on close elections.
CNN was able to predict that Biden would win on November 7, four days after Election Day, but vote counting is still continuing. An analysis by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that counties won by Biden were on average slower to count than counties won by Trump.
In 2020, the states with the slowest counts were heavily Democratic states such as California, which offered mail-in ballots to all registered voters. This means that even if the results of the presidential election are not delayed, a blue shift in the popular vote could still occur.
Remember: News networks like CNN may predict a winner when it’s clear who will win, but the race isn’t officially certified until later. Certification deadlines vary by state, but all states have a deadline of Dec. 11, 2024, to complete recounts if necessary and resolve disputes over presidential results.
Read more about “Red Mirage”.
