CNN —
Given how few people think the country is headed in the right direction, former President Donald Trump should run away with this election.
In fact, polls show that Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are tied. Now, it’s unclear whether Harris can continue to win over the support of many voters who think we’re moving in the wrong direction. What is clear is that Harris will need to go against certain fundamentals if she wants to win next month, and recent history suggests she has a chance.
When I talk about basics, I mean questions that go beyond horse racing. For example, a question might ask Americans whether they think the country is heading in the right direction or the wrong path.
A minority of Americans have historically said the country is headed in the right direction, but usually not as bad as the current numbers. Only about 28% of Americans believe the country is on the right track these days, according to the latest NBC News poll. This is well below where it was when Joe Biden took office in 2021, when the percentage was well over 40%.
In fact, 28% is not the number the president’s party wants a month before the election, regardless of whether the incumbent runs or not. Since 1980, an average of 42% of Americans say the country is on the right track in elections won by the incumbent party.
But during the same period, in elections in which the president’s party lost, only 25% of people, on average, felt the country was heading in the right direction. That’s very similar to the 28% of people who say that today.
A closer look at the statistics reveals that not a single party in power has been re-elected, despite less than 39% saying the country is heading in the right direction.
Another fundamental issue, presidential approval ratings, proves equally problematic for Harris. If the incumbent president does not run for the next term, the prediction of the president’s approval rating will be clearly lower. Still, it has some importance.
The incumbent party has never won when the president’s disapproval rating was higher than his approval rating.
Biden’s disapproval rating is currently about 10 points higher than his approval rating.
These are just two indicators of public opinion that could hurt Harris’ chances in November.
Gallup listed 10 different metrics it considers heading into the election, from party identification to satisfaction with the economy to approval of the president. Eight of those 10 were deemed good for Trump. The remaining two were neutral. None of the 10 candidates suggested Harris would win.
Despite these fundamentals in Trump’s favor, Harris may have an ace up her sleeve: the 2022 midterm elections.
Remember two years ago? Biden’s approval ratings were basically as bad as they are now. In my polling average, only 26% of Americans say we are on the right path as a nation. This 26% was the lowest midterm rate in 40 years.
In short, there were few indicators better for Democrats in 2022 than they are now.
But Democrats bucked medium-term trends, limiting their House losses to single digits, expanding their Senate majority, and winning the governor’s seat.
Perhaps the two biggest factors that allowed the Democratic Party to do so well still exist today: Trump and abortion.
President Trump continues to enjoy unfavorable ratings from American voters online. If Harris wins next month’s presidential election, she would be the least popular candidate other than Trump himself in 2016. Harris is more popular than the former president in nearly every poll.
Two years after Roe v. Wade was overturned, abortion continues to rank near the top of all issues, and many states will introduce measures to expand abortion access this fall. It’s on the ballot. Remember, every presidential election in the past 50 years took place when Roe was the law of the land. It’s hard to say what will happen because so many voters are outraged by the loss of federal protections for abortion.
The bottom line is that what has been true over the past 44 years of presidential elections contradicts what 2022 has taught us, and that’s what makes this election so interesting.
As the saying goes, the past is often prologue, but sometimes history is not meant to repeat itself.
