The largest super PAC in American politics is in the midst of an unprecedented spending spree, spending more money on late-game TV ads in the 2024 campaign than the campaigns of Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris combined.
The group, known as Future Forward, has risen to the top of the Democratic political establishment with astonishing speed, captivating the world’s wealthiest with its grandiose promise to introduce a “Moneyball” approach to political advertising that it pitches as the most sophisticated of its kind. attracted some. ever done.
The group is in some ways an ad production lab disguised as a super PAC, testing thousands of messages, social media posts and ads in the 2024 campaign, ranking them in order of effectiveness and trying to find a way to resonate with voters. Approve only what is true. Ad makers create about 20 potential commercials for each spot that airs. And Future Forward has conducted about 4 million voter surveys since Harris joined the race, and more than 10 million since January.
“They’re probably the most analytical and evidence-based PAC I’ve ever seen,” said David Nickerson, a political scientist who led the experimental arm of Barack Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign.
Harris and Democratic leaders have publicly praised the group’s efforts. But Future Forward’s closed-door approach to using the staggering $700 million it raised with affiliated nonprofits has drawn suspicion and suspicion, including from within Harris’ corporate headquarters.
The story of the rise of Future Forward and its central, if largely hidden, role in 2024 is based on interviews with more than 40 Democratic strategists, donors, and people close to Ms. Harris and the group. many of them insisted on anonymity in order to share confidential information. The New York Times also reviewed Future Forward’s internal records and donor presentations.
Founded by a group of mercurial Obama campaign veterans, Future Forward is fueling the idea that merging data science, political science, and testing can usher in a rigorous new era in advertising. . The group’s ads were widely praised in 2020, and Future Forward earned the coveted designation as an official super PAC, first for President Biden and then for Ms. Harris.
But throughout the year, some top party strategists have worried that so much money and decision-making will be consolidated into a single group. They have succumbed to what some describe as an oppressive test and what they see as Future Forward’s almost arbitrary belief in the power of late advertising to appeal to voters. It warns you about damaging other ways to spend money.
In September, the Harris campaign issued an unusual public statement suggesting that donors were supporting other groups dedicated to vote-gathering efforts.
Shortly after, Billy Wimsatt, who runs a donor group called the Movement Voter Project, wrote in a memo last month to Democratic donors, Future Forward, and the Harris campaign that vote-recovery efforts were “dangerously defunding.” “There is a shortage,” he warned. The total amount is $165 million, primarily impacting Black, Latino, Asian, and young voters.
“A lot of money is being spent on paid media, but it doesn’t seem to be enough for the ground war,” Wimsatt warned. Most recently, Harris headquarters was complaining about a lack of mail coming from allied countries.
Future Forward’s belief in designing digital and TV ads that appeal to the general public (industry acronym for “genepop” ads) also troubles strategists who want messages more tailored to people of color. are. Future Forward said its ads are running on platforms that are disproportionately viewed by minority viewers, and the group is on pace to spend $30 million on Spanish-language television. Ta. Still, Future Forward officials have advised Democrats that more broadly focused ads are often most effective, and the group’s roughly $450 million advertising decisions It is said that it reflects that idea.
It’s a big gamble, and given the huge outlay, Future Forward will get at least some credit if Harris wins, and blame if she loses.
655 Harris Advertisement
A trove of Future Forward ad test results obtained by the Times shows the astonishing level of detail in how the group studies what’s on the airwaves.
Since July, the group has ranked the effectiveness of more than 300 ads run online and on TV on behalf of both candidates in multiple categories to an accuracy of one-tenth of a percentage point.
The results showed that Harris’ most popular ad through the end of September was a 60-second spot in which she gave a speech about her most popular economic proposals. The most effective Trump campaign TV ad featured Harris dancing and called her a “border czar” while slamming her as “failed, weak, and dangerously liberal.”
Future Forward summarizes its findings in highly read emails called “Doppler” and “Flight Radar.” One recent message warned that instead of engaging in lofty rhetoric, the focus should be on how Harris’ specific policy proposals would specifically impact the lives of her constituents. . “The higher we go, the lower the effectiveness.”
The group also shared findings with allies on a wide range of topics, including that purely negative ads against Trump have little impact.
In Harris’ first months as the Democratic nominee, Future Forward ordered 655 potential ads from 25 different ad manufacturers at a cost of $6.6 million. The companies that actually advertise pay the most, which so far has been just over half. Some ad makers liken this opaque process to a “Hunger Games” contest.
Future Forward uses online surveys to measure which ads are most likely to move voters. It’s a painstaking process, but officials say ads that are shown are on average 35% more effective than those that are rejected.
Many of the tests are administered through an independent company founded by Future Forward called Blue Rose Research, but some Democratic lawmakers have said that the scores will remain unchanged, in part due to Future Forward’s strong recommendation. They are concerned that the law has too much agenda-setting power. “If we’re right, we’ll be fine,” said one official who spoke on condition of anonymity, speaking candidly about the group’s influence in Democratic politics. “If we’re wrong, we’re all wrong.”
Ishani Parikh, Future Forward’s creative director, said in a rare public statement that the process resulted in “the most effective advertising”.
“We leverage multiple tests, focus groups, and polls to understand what works, producing dozens of companies and hundreds of spots that we know are the most persuasive. We will air ads,” she said.
A super PAC that came out of nowhere
Four years ago, when Future Forward first started booking large amounts of TV time, Mr. Biden’s presidential campaign was alarmed. “We were concerned that they were another pro-Trump super PAC,” recalled Anita Dunn, a senior Biden adviser at the time.
It turned out to be quite the opposite.
A collection of Democratic mega-donors, mostly from Silicon Valley, had teamed up with a handful of number-crunching strategists to surprise Biden’s team with more than $100 million in support advertising.
The group was led by a close-knit group of Ph.D.’s who rose to prominence within the party by displaying an encyclopedic knowledge of randomized controlled trials and political science literature rather than working on the cocktail circuit in Washington. Chaucey MacLean sits at the center of the network.
Two other members of this political force are Future Forward co-founders Gaurav Shirol and John Fromowitz. Mr. Shirol founded a research company named GCJ Research after their initials. So much research was done for the super PAC that people posted on Reddit wondering if it was a scam.
Mr. MacLean, who lives in Seattle, is an elusive figure. One strategist who spoke with Mr. MacLean several times a week for a year said he had never met him in person. Several donors and elected officials munched on Giordano’s pizza and mini Chicago hot dogs in Future Forward’s luxury suite during the Democratic convention. Mr. MacLean had to be reminded exactly who Mr. . Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz has donated more than $50 million to Future Forward since 2020, but has never spoken to MacLean, according to two people familiar with the relationship. That’s what it means.
Chaucey MacLean, 2012. A strategist who spoke with Mr. MacLean several times a week for a year said he had never met Mr. MacLean in person. Credit…Andrew Hetherington/Redux
The group values secrecy and runs much of its business on the encrypted app Signal, keeping information secret even from the people and groups it collaborates with. The super PAC has secured the source of more than $130 million in donations, nearly 40 percent of the money it raises, by receiving donations through its slush, nonprofit arm.
Some past super PAC leaders have become national figures. However, MacLean has only appeared in public once during this campaign. He declined to comment for this article.
All that discretion appealed to the Biden team. Four years after rushing to learn about Future Forward, Dunn helped broker Biden’s selection as a super PAC and still works for it.
distrust among democrats
Future Forward’s advertising strategy can be summed up in four words: “Book early, stay late.”
The group began booking its fall ads in January to secure the best prices. The most intense spending is currently occurring, guided by the unwavering belief that advertising’s persuasive effects quickly wear off.
The strategy seems very simple. In practice, this meant spending the summer on the sidelines as Mr. Biden drowned politically after a disastrous debate with Mr. Trump. MacLean told donors that Biden faces problems that ads cannot solve.
There was widespread distrust after polls showing how much damage the debates caused to Biden were leaked twice by companies with deep ties to Future Forward. The first poll clearly tested him as a possible replacement for Biden. And just days before Biden left office, another report was circulated on Capitol Hill detailing the dire situation in the Biden campaign.
But the most intense friction between Democratic groups and Future Forward was over racial issues.
Future Forward spent $35 million in October to tell his “ridiculously rich” supporters that black voters supporting Harris would cut their taxes because they were “not outrageously rich.” A single advertisement was broadcast in parallel.
The idea is to target everyone at once, and Future Forward’s testing puts the spot in the 95th percentile in effectiveness across voters, as well as white, black, Asian, and Hispanic voters. It turns out that there is.
But party strategists are skeptical of this approach, believing Harris needs to specifically mobilize key Democratic constituencies in other ways.
“I think they were too narrow-minded about how we win this election,” said the organization Aimed at Building Black Political Power, which recently received a small donation from Future Forward. , says Quentin James, head of Collective PAC. .
Black campaign officials have fielded complaints from Black organizations that Future Forward isn’t sending money to Black organizations quickly enough. Future Forward advocates say the group is improving its approach.
“Here we go into the last few weeks, and they’re going to make a big deal. “Our strategic perspective has expanded.” ”
Earlier this month, Harris’ sister Maya Harris appeared on a Zoom call with 100 Future Forward donors, but she did not go into lingering grievances about the organization.
“For them, it’s all about impact,” she says.
