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Andrew Feinberg
white house correspondent
Vice President Kamala Harris will face off against Donald Trump in less than a month as Americans vote in the 2024 election.
With just weeks left, President Trump may be losing support with older voters. The latest New York Times poll shows the two candidates separated by a hairline. Harris leads by 3 points.
In another development, Florida’s presidential election turned into a chaotic voting period. While multiple polls had shown Trump’s lead shrinking and Harris holding a two-point lead, the latest New York Times poll reversed expectations and put Trump back in the lead by a mile.
So what will happen to Harris and Trump in November?
The average of the latest national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 2.6 percentage points. On average, Ms. Harris has been trailing Mr. Trump slightly in national polls in recent weeks.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris with a 3-point lead at 49% and Trump at 46%.
Harris’ strongest support base remains young voters and voters of non-white backgrounds. Trump’s main base of support, on the other hand, is white non-college voters.
Unfortunately for the Trump campaign, the poll suggests that older generations of voters are no longer staunch Republicans.
For both Gen
In fact, the two candidates are virtually tied within both groups. President Trump’s lead is just 1 and 2 points, with a margin of error of +-2.4.
It remains to be seen how this will change in the final stages, but the Republican Party has won voters over 65 in every election since 2000.
The gender gap between Trump and Harris voters remains strong, with women leaning to the left and men leaning to the right.
Both candidates hold promise for change, but Mr. Trump has generally been more successful in enhancing his reputation than Ms. Harris.
But the poll also shows that Harris (46%) is more likely to represent change than Trump (44%).
Florida polls shaky
Polling has been a focus of increased attention in Florida in recent weeks, with many speculating that Ms. Harris could narrow Mr. Trump’s lead in her home state.
In particular, in Florida, home to Mar-a-Lago and several leading Republicans, Mr. Trump won 50% of the vote and Ms. Harris won 48%, according to statistics from the historically Republican polling firm RMG Research. % was obtained.
But according to a New York Times poll this morning, Trump has a 13-point lead in the Sunshine State, 55% to Harris’ 41%.
Although this is inconsistent with some recent polls conducted in the state, New York Times analyst Nate Cohn suggested that the poll was not an outlier and that the next It is stated as follows. They did it in Florida. As a result, this poll is no ordinary outlier. ”
“If Florida becomes more solidly Republican in 2024, it would signal that the turmoil during and after the pandemic has had a lasting impact on American politics.”
Vance wins vice presidential debate and gains popularity
Last week’s debate between Ohio Sen. Vance and Minnesota Governor Walz defied expectations. Gambling markets and preliminary polls are pointing to Waltz as the presumptive winner.
Not only did Vance “win” the debate, his performance seemed to do wonders for public perception, which had been suffering for months.
Pre-debate analysis found that Walz outperformed Trump, Vance and even Harris in favorability ratings.
According to the latest YouGov poll, Vance’s favorability rating rose by 11 points after last week’s debate.
This puts Vance in a neutral position, but before the debate voters had an overall unfavorable opinion of him by -11 percentage points.
Most interestingly, Vance’s favorability rating increased by an astonishing +19 points among Democrats. However, overall, he still has a net negative score of -52% among this group.
Mr Walz’s approval rating also rose slightly by three points, with his favorability rating reaching 15% in a YouGov poll.
Although Walz’s performance did not win the debate, he remained the most popular candidate, and his favorability among independent voters improved after the debate.
However, although he lost support from 7% of voters within his own party, he ultimately remained in a positive position with a 72% approval rating for the Democratic Party.
A post-debate snap poll showed viewers divided between the candidates, with Vance leading by several points.
A CBS/YouGov poll found that 42% of viewers thought Vance would win the debate, compared to 41% for Walz.
But Mr. Walz emerged as someone more relatable to average Americans and more likely to share voters’ vision of America.
Click here for more post-debate poll analysis.
Issues that matter to voters
Regardless of political affiliation, the economy is the most important issue influencing how people vote in this election.
Abortion is considered the second most important issue by 37% of voters, according to a poll of 2,500 U.S. adults conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies through Sept. 26. This is followed by immigrants at 34%.
But for those who voted for President Trump, these priorities are reversed.
More than half of Trump voters (57%) say immigration is one of their biggest issues, amid border security tensions and recent debunking of Trump and Republicans’ claims about Haitian immigration.
Interestingly, health care and abortion are tied as the next most important issues for Trump supporters, at 23% each.
Mr. Trump has advocated for overhauling Obamacare, but failed in his attempts during his presidency, and was unable to outline an alternative health care policy during September’s presidential debate.
On the other hand, abortion is the top issue for Harris voters (55%), and Harris herself has been critical of abortion bans in the wake of Roe v. Wade.
Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40%), followed by housing (23%).
battleground states
Recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls in battleground states show Harris with an average lead of +3 points, ranging from even with Trump to a lead of +7 points.
The poll was conducted from September 19th to 25th among more than 6,000 registered voters in battleground states, and had a margin of error of 1% to 4% in each state.
In Pennsylvania, where the first Harris-Trump presidential debate was held, Harris’ lead has increased from +4 points to +5 points since August.
The state tilted toward President Trump when President Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.
In Nevada, Harris has a 7-point lead over Trump, with 52% of the vote to 45%.
In Georgia, the two candidates are tied with 49% each, and in Wisconsin, Ms. Harris’ 5-point lead narrowed her lead over Mr. Trump to 3 points.
Harris also holds a three-point lead over Michigan and Arizona, and a two-point lead over North Carolina.
While the economy remains a top priority for voters in battleground states, the perceived “capability gap” is narrowing. Forty-five percent of voters in battleground states think Harris can handle the economy well, just behind Trump’s 49%.
Who will vote?
A YouGov/Economist poll shows Ms Harris with a 3-point lead among registered voters, with 47% to Mr Trump’s 44%. The poll showed a 25-point lead for Harris among young voters under 29.
However, according to the same poll, younger generations are the least likely to vote, with 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed saying they “may vote,” and 3 percent saying they would not vote or I answered that I was still unsure. .
This equates to 16 percent who are unsure about voting or have not voted, higher than any other age group and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65% of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed said they were sure to vote in November.
This compares to 77% of those aged 30 to 44, 85% of those aged 45 to 64, and 94% of those aged 65 and older.
While the numbers may seem dismal and represent a degree of hesitation among young voters, the big picture is that there is far more interest than in 2020.
The same YouGov/Economist poll at this stage of the 2020 presidential election found that nearly a third (27%) of young people are not keen to vote in November, with 10% saying they “might” vote. 17% said they would definitely/probably not vote. vote.
Arizona: Important Issues
In Arizona, a historically Republican state with 11 electoral votes that flipped to Biden in 2020, polls show an inconsistent lead between Harris and Trump. Shown.
The Trump campaign made frequent stops in the state over the summer.
In Arizona, which borders Mexico, one in five Arizona voters (19%) say immigration is the most important issue influencing their vote, according to the same poll. .
This is second only to the economy, which is the biggest issue affecting voters across the state and nationwide.
A majority of Arizona voters (51%) believe Trump is capable of handling key issues, a trend that has reversed since August, when confidence in Harris was slightly higher. .
This suggests that despite overall enthusiasm for Harris’ debate performance, Arizona voters may still support Trump and his approach to key issues. As a generally Republican state, this is not surprising.
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