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A new poll on Saturday shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, but three other polls this week show the battleground state is effectively deadlocked. A victory for either candidate could pave the way for a white candidate. house.
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris joins former President… (+) Republicans speaking during the first presidential debate at the National Constitution Center on Tuesday, September 10, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Presidential candidate Donald Trump. (Photo by Demetrius Freeman/Washington Post via Getty Images)
Washington Post (via Getty Images)
important facts
Two New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls show Harris leading Trump by 4 points (50% to 47%, but data shows it’s closer to 4 points). , the Times/Siena investigation is the third in the past two months. Harris was supported by at least half of the battleground states.
But Friday’s Wall Street Journal poll, which included third-party candidates, gave Trump a one-point advantage (46% to 45%), a far cry from the dead heat reflected in recent polls. was drawing.
An Emerson College poll released Thursday showed Trump holding a 1-point lead since the September poll, while a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday showed Harris with a 3-point lead.
Pennsylvania receives 19 electoral votes, more than any other battleground state, and Pennsylvanians routinely choose winners, voting for 10 of the past 12 White House winners. A candidate who wins Pennsylvania also wins Michigan and Wisconsin (together known as). “Blue Wall”) in the past eight elections.
According to political analyst Nate Silver’s election prediction model, there is a 29% chance that Pennsylvania will flip the election, much higher than other battleground states, but if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she will win. It turned out that the probability was 87.3%, while Trump was 92.7%. The probability of winning is %.
Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, but Biden, a native of Scranton, Pennsylvania, reversed the trend in 2020 and the state elected him as an elector. exceeded the 270-vote threshold required. College when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after the election.
To emphasize Pennsylvania’s importance to the 2024 election, ABC News has decided to hold the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris in Philadelphia. Pennsylvania also has personal significance for President Trump, as he was shot while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.
Pennsylvania has a high percentage of working-class white voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white, and Trump typically performs well among this demographic, but in 2020 Compared to Biden’s performance, Harris has made inroads with white voters and is lagging behind Biden. After winning the demographic by 12 points in 2020, Trump’s lead nationally was just 3 points, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
amazing facts
No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948. If Harris wins Pennsylvania and maintains her trend of wins in Wisconsin and Michigan, she is almost certain to win the White House.
big number
82%. That’s the share of Pennsylvania registered voters who say the economy will be the main factor in their 2024 vote, followed by inflation at 78% and democracy at 70%, according to a CBS/YouGov poll. It has become. A recent Pew Research survey of registered voters found that this result is on par with districts across the country, with 81% of registered voters rating the economy as “very important” in elections. I found out.
chief critic
President Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked Harris over her previous support for banning fracking. Pennsylvania is the nation’s second largest producer of natural gas. “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during a debate in Philadelphia. Harris said at a CNN climate town hall in 2019 when she was running for president that she was “without question in favor of banning fracking,” but has since changed her position. During the debate, she made it “very clear” that she opposes a fracking ban in 2020, perhaps referring to the vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, saying the Inflation Control Act would allow new gas leases. He reiterated his position on the Hydraulic Fracturing Ban Act. CNN interview last month. Harris did not actually say she had changed her position on the issue during the 2020 debate, instead saying that then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden was “not going to end fracking.” said.
tangent
Pennsylvania’s state legislature is divided. The state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, is widely popular in the state. Democrats also have a majority in the House of Representatives, but Republicans have a majority in the Senate.
Main background
FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris leading Trump in four of the seven battleground states, with Trump leading in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. States (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). If Trump maintains his lead in Arizona and Georgia and wins North Carolina as expected, he needs one of the “blue wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) to win the White House. That’s all you need.
Read more
2024 election battleground state poll: Harris narrowly leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but tied in Pennsylvania (Forbes)
How Kamala Harris’ views on fracking have changed since reversing the ban (Forbes)
Trump vs. Harris 2024 poll: Harris up 1 point—stagnant in lead before debate (Forbes)
