Politicians and Israeli Defense Force leaders may already be “starting their engines” ahead of a possible serious response in Iran following the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile attack last week, but Israel Which targets are they likely to attack?
The political leadership faces several dilemmas regarding the nature of the IDF response on Iranian soil. Is it more appropriate to attack military targets, economic targets such as Iranian oil, governance structures, or targets related to Iran’s nuclear project that threatens Israel and the entire world?
In an attack focused on the regime’s military targets, Iran possesses a number of important strategic assets that Israel could choose to attack.
For example, it could target surface-to-surface missile bases. Some of these are installed on the ground, while others are movable and change locations. Some are in underground facilities designed to withstand air strikes.
In addition, drone launch sites and air defense facilities are also on Israeli Air Force radar. An F-15 fighter jet flies during a graduation ceremony for Israeli Air Force pilots at Hatzerim Air Base in southern Israel, June 29, 2023. (Credit: Reuters/Amir Cohen)
Iran’s air defense capabilities
Iran has surface-to-air missile defense systems, including the Russian-made S-300, the Chinese-made HQ-9, and an Iranian-made defense system with a range of hundreds of kilometers.
Assuming that the political establishment decides to attack Iran’s economic infrastructure in response to last week’s ballistic missile attack, oil facilities would be a prime target.
In such a scenario, the wells, production processes, transportation, storage, and ports through which Iran exports oil to the world would all be at risk.
On the other hand, attacking infrastructure or production processes risks involving the interests of China, Russia, and other countries that may not necessarily support Israel, increasing the likelihood of unwanted entanglements.
Israel’s potential response to an Iranian attack also includes governance objectives. On the table are government institutions, national landmarks and symbols that, if damaged, could damage the Ayatollah’s government and undermine the morale of the people.
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This nuclear project is the most important undertaking for the Ayatollah regime in Tehran, and its military infrastructure is designed to protect various bases (some above ground, some underground) judiciously distributed across Iran. There is.
Attacking Iran’s flagship project would remove Israel’s biggest threat and deal a severe blow to the regime that has been working on the project for decades.
Making the impossible possible: Can Israel attack Iran’s nuclear project on its own?
The IAF has the ability to launch missiles from hundreds of kilometers away, which not only reduces the need for refueling and increases the number of aircraft that can participate in attacks, but also exposes aircraft to Iranian radar and missiles. This also minimizes the risk of damage.
Additionally, the Air Force’s ability to refuel at distances of up to 1,800 kilometers will allow a variety of fighter jets to fly longer distances, increasing the effectiveness of a first strike against Iran.
It is important to note that in addition to the F-35 (“Adir”), the F-15 and F-16 are also capable of dealing with advanced air defense systems, including destruction.
In addition, the Air Force’s air superiority, intelligence gathering, and long-range electronic warfare provide high levels of defense, precision strikes, and readiness for extreme scenarios.
The Air Force has unmanned aircraft such as Eitan that can operate for more than 30 hours continuously and are equipped with weapons and intelligence systems. These assets enable attacks in multiple waves rather than a single attack. Israeli Air Force (IAF) F35 used to attack Yemen in Operation Arms Outstretched (Credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
However, a large-scale attack by Israel against Iran comes with risks that must be considered. In response to a large-scale attack by the Israeli Air Force, Iran is not standing by and is likely to retaliate even more violently.
Therefore, a broad and untargeted first strike would be necessary to paralyze Iran’s strategic capabilities to prevent a broad and automatic response to Israeli military bases and the Israeli mainland front. It should be noted that, according to foreign reports, Israel has a second strike capability with ballistic missiles and a third option with submarines.
