Americans are unlikely to say that 78-year-old Donald Trump is too old to be president, raising concerns about the former president’s fitness for office. But it’s still significantly lower than similar concerns for President Joe Biden, 81, before he withdrew from the race. Few have similar concerns about Kamala Harris, 60, the Democratic nominee to replace Biden and Trump’s main opponent. A growing percentage of Americans think it’s fair to discuss a candidate’s physical health.
Concerns about President Trump’s age have grown over time
During the 2024 election period, Americans are increasingly concerned about how Trump’s age will affect his ability to serve as president. The Stanford-Arizona-Yale Election Panel (SAY24) conducted by YouGov interviews the same group of respondents every four weeks and tracks changes in panelists’ thoughts about the 2024 election over time. You can. From February to October 2024, the percentage of panelists who said Trump is too old to be president rose from 35% to 44%, while 53% said Trump is not old. This has decreased from 46% to 46%.
While concerns about Trump’s age have increased, they are still well below the levels of concern about Biden’s age when he was considered the Democratic presidential nominee. Between February 2024, when Mr. Biden withdrew from the race, and July 2024, the percentage of Americans who said Mr. Biden was too old to be president increased from 63% to 70%. Over the same period, the proportion saying they don’t feel very old fell from 25% to 18%.
This means that Biden’s and Trump’s changes in attitudes toward age are relatively similar. The share of Americans who think Biden is too old to be president increased by 7 points in five months, while the share of Americans who think Trump is too old increased by 9 points in eight months. But the two candidates started from very different baselines. As of the beginning of this year, a majority of Americans already believed Biden was too old, but only about a third of Americans believed the same about Trump. So even today, the percentage of Americans who say Trump is too old is within the margin of error compared to the percentage who say Trump is not very old.
Most Americans think Trump’s health and age will affect his presidency.
Americans are just as likely to say Trump is too old to be president as they are to say Trump is not too old, but more Americans are more likely to say Trump is too old. I have concerns about my health. According to an Oct. 18-20, 2024 poll, a majority of Americans (56%) believe that President Trump’s health and age will have at least some impact on his ability to fulfill his duties as president; 36% think Trump’s inauguration will have a significant impact. Limited by his health and age. Only 33% of Americans think Trump’s health and age will not affect his ability to serve as president.
As with most beliefs about Trump, Biden, and Harris, beliefs about Trump’s health and age are largely divided by political party. Democrats are the most likely to believe that President Trump’s time as president will be significantly limited by his health and age, with 71% believing this and an additional 15% saying health and age will have a small effect. That’s what I think. Only 9% of Democrats believe that Trump’s presidential status will not be affected by his health or age. Republicans, by contrast, are the most likely to think he will be unaffected, with 66% of Republicans holding this view and 29% saying his health and age will have some impact on his presidential bid. I think I will give it. Independents are somewhere between the two extremes, but they are still more likely to think President Trump’s health and age have an impact than not. Thirty-one percent of independents think President Trump will be significantly limited by health and age, while an additional 20% think the impact will be small. By contrast, 26% of independents think Trump is unaffected by health or age.
Americans who watched videos of President Trump’s speeches in the last month were more likely to express concerns about his age and health. Most Americans (60%) who saw President Trump’s speech in the last month believe that President Trump’s health and age will affect his ability to serve as president, but those who did not see President Trump’s speech in the last month 40% of people feel the same way. More people who haven’t seen President Trump speak in the past month (29%) are more likely to say that his health or age is a factor than those who have seen him speak (6%). The answer is that I’m not sure. Trump’s recent speeches appear to be helping Americans make up their minds about his health, but for many, not in the way the Trump campaign had hoped. Watching a presidential candidate’s recent speech increases overall awareness of the election and also correlates with being more likely to have an opinion about the candidate.
By contrast, most Americans (62%) believe that Harris’ age and health will not affect her ability to serve as president. Only 16% thought it would have only a slight impact, and 9% thought it would be a serious restriction. Similar to feelings about President Trump’s health and age, attitudes toward Harris are divided along party lines, but Americans across all parties believe that Harris’ health and age have a minor or significant impact. They are more likely to say that there is no impact than to say that there is no impact. Fifty-six percent of Democrats and independents and 48% of Republicans say Harris’ health or age will not affect her chances of becoming president, but 13% of Democrats, 22% of independents, and 39% think it will have some impact.
Americans who saw Harris speak in the last month were more likely to say her health and age would not affect her as president (67% compared with 46% of those who hadn’t seen her speak). ), it is not likely that you will think so. (24% of both groups) said it had an impact. In contrast to Trump’s recent speeches, Harris’ speech seems more likely to allay health concerns rather than stoke them.
Many Americans believe President Trump is suffering from cognitive decline, but a similar proportion do not believe this
Recent reports have highlighted some Americans’ concerns about President Trump’s mental strength. The SAY24 survey asked Americans whether they thought President Trump was experiencing cognitive decline. Opinions on this topic are evenly divided, with 40% believing President Trump is experiencing significant or some decline, while 40% believe President Trump is not declining. The remaining 20% of Americans aren’t sure.
People who say they are paying a lot of attention to news about the 2024 election are the most likely to say that President Trump is experiencing cognitive decline, with 45% of this group saying that President Trump is They believe they are suffering from mild or significant cognitive decline. However, this same group is the most likely to say they do not experience cognitive decline (48%). We expect that those who pay the most attention to election news are most likely to have formed opinions on the subject of recent news media coverage. It remains to be seen whether this story will gain traction among people who don’t pay much attention to the news, most of whom are on the fence about the subject.
The partisan pattern is similar here. Americans who plan to vote for Ms. Harris are far more likely to believe that Mr. Trump is in decline than those who plan to vote for Mr. Trump. While 81% of Harris voters think Trump is experiencing a slight or significant decline, only 6% of Trump voters say the same. By contrast, 85% of Trump voters believe that Trump is not cognitively impaired, a belief shared by only 5% of Harris voters.
Voters who plan to vote for another candidate or are undecided are also unlikely to believe that Trump is suffering from cognitive decline. Most supporters of other candidates (59%) believe President Trump is experiencing mild or significant cognitive decline, while only 24% believe he has not. . Undecided voters are just as likely to say that Trump is in decline (36%) as they are to say that they are unsure about Trump’s perceived state (36%). A smaller proportion (28%) said no.
Americans see Harris as more transparent about her health than Trump.
Americans are more likely to believe that Ms. Harris has provided sufficient information about her own health than to believe that Mr. Trump has provided sufficient information about her own health. Another recent poll found that 46% of Americans believe Harris has shared enough information, while 30% think the same about Trump. Conversely, 21% of Americans think Harris isn’t sharing enough information, and 44% think the same about Trump.
As with other aspects of opinion about a candidate’s health status, opinions about disclosure are highly divided by political party. Most Democrats (80%) believe Harris is sharing enough information, but only 12% believe Trump is sharing enough information. Republican opinion, although slightly less biased, paints the opposite picture. Fifty-seven percent believe Trump is sharing enough information, while only 21% believe Harris is sharing enough information. Independents are more likely to view Harris as more transparent than President Trump. Thirty-eight percent of independents believe Harris is not sharing enough information, while 18% disagree. By contrast, 24% of independents think President Trump is not sharing enough information, while 40% think he is not sharing enough information.
Is it fair to question a candidate’s health?
Most Americans believe it is fair for the media to question candidates’ health, and this has been the case in all three election cycles. Now, 72% of Americans say it’s fair for the media to question a candidate’s health. In 2020, 61% expressed this view, and in 2016, 68% expressed a similar belief. A consistent minority says it’s unfair to question a candidate’s health, up from 13% in 2024 to 29% in 2020 and 2016.
There is a partisan divide on this issue, but that divide has changed over time. Currently, 79% of Democrats think it’s fair to question a candidate’s health, as do 69% of Republicans. There was a similar divide in 2020, with 68% of Democrats saying the health question was fair, compared to 57% of Republicans saying the same. The coronavirus pandemic may have influenced how respondents answered this question in 2020, but the survey was conducted before Biden and Trump tested positive for COVID-19. But in 2016, the partisan divide on this question reversed. While 87% of Republicans think it’s fair to ask questions about a candidate’s health, only 52% of Democrats say the same. The poll was conducted shortly after Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton contracted pneumonia.
— Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
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Methodology and results:
SAY24 polls from February 21 to October 22, 2024: YouGov invited 10,028 US adults to participate in nine surveys. The survey was conducted every four weeks from February 21 to October 22, 2024 for the SAY24 project, which includes Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University. Between 4,730 and 6,813 respondents completed each survey. Each sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey, the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and 2020 presidential voting and partisan identification. The weight for each study ranges from 0.04 to 6.79, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 1.1 to 1.5. The margin of error (95% confidence interval) for percentages based on the entire sample for each month ranges from ±1.9% to ±2.5%.
Poll from October 18-20, 2024: This YouGov poll was conducted online among 1,081 adult Americans from October 18-20, 2024. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to represent the adult U.S. population. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, turnout and presidential vote count in the 2020 election, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets are based on the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is a respondent’s most recent response given before November 1, 2022, weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democrat, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately 4%.
Daily question survey on October 17, 2024: The Daily question survey was conducted online on October 17, 2024 among 4,001 U.S. adults. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. Census region, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of approximately 2%. result:
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