A new global climate finance target is the centerpiece of the climate summit.
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The next United Nations climate change conference, COP29, will be held once a month today in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan.
It hurts that the climate crisis continues to grow beyond our efforts in a week that saw deadly flooding in Eastern Europe and ‘ferocious’ weather-driven hurricanes in the US. It’s so obvious.
For two weeks, from November 11 to 22, the world will focus on leaders who are stepping up climate action and providing strong protections for frontline workers.
COP29 is being touted as a “fiscal COP” because it comes at a time when countries are setting new global climate finance targets. Countries will also need to submit stronger national climate commitments ahead of COP30, to be held in Brazil next year.
And after several victories at COP28 in Dubai last year (including the formal launch of a new loss and damage fund for climate change victims), developing countries are confident that past commitments will be respected and improved. I am anxious to do so.
One month is a long time in world affairs. The devastating conflict in the Middle East and the US election in early November will affect negotiations in a number of ways. However, given the deadlines built into the UNFCCC process, the key issues heading into the summit are:
What was agreed at COP28?
The main outcome agreed at COP28 was the first-ever ‘global stocktake’, as required by the Paris Agreement, which has guided global climate action since 2015.
For the first time in the Climate Change COP, the final document actually mentioned fossil fuels and called on all countries to “transition” away from them. Despite this progress, the decision avoids the complete “phasing out” that many say is necessary to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The outcome also called on countries to contribute to tripling the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Following the historic agreement reached at COP27 to create a Loss and Damage Fund to effectively compensate countries vulnerable to climate change, COP28 successfully formally launched the Fund.
Details are still being worked out in Baku before the money actually starts flowing to countries that need it next year.
Why is COP29 called “Financial COP”?
For the first time in 15 years, countries will need to agree on a new global financial target, known as the New Collective Quantified Climate Finance Target (NCQG).
This updates a goal set in 2009, when developed countries pledged to mobilize $100 billion (€91.4 billion) annually by 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. It turns out. That promise was finally fulfilled in 2022.
As the crisis intensifies, the actual amount of climate finance developing countries currently need is estimated to range from $500 billion to more than $1 trillion per year. There are major challenges in bridging the minimum conditions that developed countries can accept in an agreement and the maximum conditions they are willing to stake themselves on to achieve.
At COP29, there will be a lot of discussion not only about the total amount but also about the terms of the NCQG. These include: How much money is available from public and private sources. and whether it will be in the form of a grant or loan.
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Where does the EU stand on climate finance?
EU ministers earlier this week approved conclusions on climate finance, pledging to continue jointly mobilizing $100 billion a year until 2025 and setting up an “ambitious” NCQG after that.
The Council is scheduled to adopt the final negotiating mandate for COP29 on 15 October. The Climate Finance Instrument now emphasizes that international public finance is at its core and should be provided by a “broader base of contributors, including countries that can contribute.”
“$100 billion a year is never enough,” Michael Bross, climate and industrial policy spokesperson for the Green Party in the European Parliament, told Euronews Green.
“Our priorities are clear: balance funding across mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage, with strict interim targets,” he added. “To break the cycle of debt and unlock the true potential of sustainable development, we need subsidies to replace loans.”
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It remains to be seen whether the NGQG will set specific sub-targets on adaptation and loss and damage financing. The former is more likely, said Alden Meyer, a senior researcher at climate think tank E3G. Developing countries have been fighting for 50% of their funding to be allocated to adaptation in recent years, given the urgent need to adapt to climate change.
Laying the foundation for a stronger NDC
There is also a deadline looming under the Paris Agreement for countries to submit new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining how they will curb emissions.
These must be updated every five years, with the next round scheduled for February 2025. COP29 is therefore a key moment for countries to raise standards and hold each other accountable.
The World Resources Institute (WRI) notes that NDCs should include sector-specific goals, including specific targets for transitioning to emission-free energy and food systems.
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At a recent high-level event, the Presidency Troika (UAE, Azerbaijan, and COP30 host Brazil) indicated that their NDCs will be announced by the COP or by the end of the year.
But despite the rousing rhetoric about “maintaining 1.5 degrees,” Meyer says he has little information about how leaders will act on last year’s global stocktake. said.
“I was shocked by the fact that the Troika Presidency said nothing about reforming its current intention to expand fossil fuel production and exports,” he told reporters at a subsequent briefing. “All three companies have plans to significantly expand their investments in that area.”
COP29 has an enormous task to bring rhetoric closer to reality.
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Turning your energy ambitions into action
“This is going to be the financial COP that we’re going to be in,” Leo Roberts, an energy transition expert at E3G, said at the same briefing. “But that doesn’t mean energy is no longer important. In fact, it becomes very important that energy is not lost.”
With the decision on a global stocktake, COP28 ended with a series of global initiatives to which countries were asked to contribute. Phasing out coal-fired power generation. and moving away from fossil fuels.
“It’s clear this is a package, not a menu,” Roberts said, pointing to worrying selectivity on the fossil fuel side of the equation. He also pointed to a lack of consistency in how countries are linking global energy transition ambitions and financing.
In his first official letter to parties, COP29 President-designate Mukhtar Babayev emphasized that the summit’s two pillars will raise ambition and enable action.
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According to the latest IEA report, the world is currently only on track to increase renewable energy capacity by 2.7 times by 2030, and more action and financial support is needed on this front.
Who will go to COP29?
World leaders will arrive at Baku Stadium for the World Leaders Climate Action Summit, which will be held at the start of the COP on November 12th and 13th.
As in previous years, this will be an opportunity for world leaders to meet before negotiators get down to business. Big names tend to be confirmed closer to the time.
But in a sign that the event will be smaller than last year’s record-breaking list of more than 65,000 attendees, many finance chiefs have said they plan to skip the summit this year.
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Despite the focus on private finance, the heads of Bank of America, BlackRock, Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank were not present, suggesting that this is a “technical” approach that is not well suited for business. The Financial Times reports that some people claim that it is a “COP”.
Britain’s veteran climate change official, King Charles, is also reportedly absent from COP29.
But Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev is certain to welcome more world leaders, including Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, a champion of fairer climate action. Mr Mottley, currently head of the V20 group of climate-vulnerable countries, will bring more radical ideas for financial reform under the Bridgetown Initiative.
Civil society groups and climate change activists will also visit Azerbaijan, another oil-state host country that has come under scrutiny for its human rights record.
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EU Green Party spokesperson Bros added: “Climate action must have justice at its core and be holistic.” “This includes holding COP host Azerbaijan accountable for its precarious human rights situation and demanding full freedom for civil society and national climate activists to act without restraint.
If you need a refresher on how the COP on Climate Change started, check out our comprehensive guide to COP28. Check out more coverage of COP29 as the world’s most important climate negotiations approach.
