CNN —
President Joe Biden rushed last year to comfort Israel as it grieved the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust, insisting that the United States supported the country in dark times and that better times were sure to come.
At the time, no one knew that his pledge would have international and domestic political consequences. The ensuing war demonstrated the existential role that the United States played in Israel’s survival, but also seriously strained the alliance. It also exposes and widens some of America’s deepest political divides ahead of an already crowded election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump next month. It became.
The October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attack that killed 1,200 people forever changed the strategic balance of the Middle East, with Israel confronting Hamas, then Hezbollah, and engaging in a firefight with its sponsor, arch-enemy Iran. I didn’t just let it happen. Similar to the September 11 attacks in 2001, the Hamas scare set off a chain of events that affected countless lives and sparked political turmoil thousands of miles away.
On the military front, the United States and its allies twice conducted unprecedented operations to protect Israel from a barrage of missiles and drones from Iran. The United States has also repeatedly bombed Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who began attacking international shipping in the Red Sea on October 7. The vulnerability of the US military comes amid Washington’s concerns about an all-out Middle East war, with the region tragically forced home in January when an attack on a base in Jordan killed three US service members.
Domestically, the aftermath of the Hamas attack coincided with the toxic politics of a presidential election year. The campus protests highlighted divisions within the Democratic Party, sparking an unprecedented political turmoil that would soon see Biden abandon his re-election bid and endorse Harris months before the election. In the new race between Harris and Trump, events in the Middle East continue to have repercussions that could affect the outcome of the election. Meanwhile, a terrifying wave of anti-Semitism has left many Jews questioning whether they are safe in America.
Israel’s onslaught against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians, may have finally dashed America’s hopes for a two-state solution. And it poses the Biden administration’s biggest external crisis at a time when the U.S.-led global system is fractured by challenges from Russia and a rising China.
Israel’s escalation of its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon threatens to confuse the US government and trigger a direct conflict with Iran, which has so far been avoided during nearly half a century of hostilities since the Islamic Revolution.
Biden has been a staunch supporter of Israel for decades, but that record has not prevented him from growing suspicions and disagreements with Israel’s most right-wing government in history. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the U.S. president’s attempts to alleviate the civilian costs of the Gaza war and ignored Washington’s priorities when U.S. and Israeli interests diverge. As a result, the Biden administration faces a significant decline in its authority on the international stage, threatening its foreign policy priorities.
Months of U.S. shuttle diplomacy involving Secretary of State Antony Blinken, CIA Director William Burns and other senior officials has resulted in limited progress on freeing the Gaza hostages. And a ceasefire agreement with Hamas seems further away than ever. In many cases, the United States appears to have wanted a far greater deal than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who have embedded Hamas forces in civilian areas and increased the war’s carnage. Ta.
Mr. Biden’s personal credibility has also been undermined by the defiance of Mr. Netanyahu, who has not shied away from intervening in U.S. domestic politics, even as Republicans clearly line up behind Mr. Trump.
Weeks after the October 7 attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s image as Israel’s ultimate defender appears to be headed toward political oblivion, destroyed by the darkest day in the country’s history. Ta. But his tenacity means he is almost certain to outlast Mr Biden, who leaves office in January. Any expansion of the war that the president bequeaths to Trump or Harris would tarnish the accomplishments of politicians who considered themselves foreign policy experts.
The Hamas terrorist attacks and Israel’s response exposed and widened the rifts in American society and domestic politics.
Washington has been involved in brokering peace in the Middle East for generations. But never since October 7 has the Israeli-Palestinian conflict become such a dangerous domestic political issue.
Videos of Israeli retaliation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and horrific scenes of killings of Palestinian children and civilians have sparked an anti-Israel backlash on the left, creating dangerous political pressure for Biden and then Harris.
Progressive anger at Israel and the Biden administration’s failure to rein in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have divided the Democratic coalition. Thousands of Arab American voters and others have refused to support Mr. Biden in the primaries, especially in key battleground states like Michigan, which could keep them out of next month’s election. There is a possibility that she will vote for a third party, which could undermine Harris’ hopes for the White House. During his presidential bid, Biden was repeatedly interrupted by pro-Palestinian protests and faced banners reading “Massacre Joe” for failing to do more to save Palestinian civilians.
Ms. Harris is now struggling to perform the same dangerous balancing act that has hampered Ms. Biden for years. She must prioritize U.S. foreign policy priorities, the political imperative of working with Israel, and work to calm the Democratic Party’s unrest over the war. Still deeply concerned about political headwinds, Harris traveled to Michigan last week to meet with Arab American leaders.
But her struggles were clear in advance excerpts of an interview scheduled for Monday’s broadcast on CBS’s “60 Minutes.” “The work we are doing diplomatically with Israeli leaders makes clear our principles, including the need for humanitarian aid, the need to end this war, and the need to reach an agreement that will be liberated. “This is a continuing pursuit centered around freeing the hostages and establishing a ceasefire,” Harris said.
“And we are not going to stop in terms of putting pressure on the region, including on Israel and Arab leaders,” she added.
She argued that, contrary to appearances, Washington had a major influence on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s strategy. “As a result of the work we have done, many Israeli movements have emerged in the region. These movements were inspired by many things, including our advocacy for what should happen in the region. , or were very active as a result,” she said.
Trump and Netanyahu’s tacit alliance
Prime Minister Netanyahu has long played the perfect role in American politics, dating back to the Clinton administration in the 1990s. But his subtle interventions to maintain his power reached a new level last year. He sees common interest with Republicans seeking to use the war to damage Biden as the election approaches. In July, he addressed the U.S. Congress during a trip that was initiated primarily by Republicans and infuriated many Democrats.
Prime Minister Netanyahu seems hopeful that Trump will return as president. The former president largely agreed with the hawkish policies of Israeli leaders during his first term, and used the post-October 7 war to push the world toward World War III on the Democratic Party’s watch. I embroidered my own story of progress.
Political divisions in the United States over Israel’s intentions intensified over the weekend after Biden said last week’s ballistic missile attack by Iran should not be responded to by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. Many of Netanyahu’s supporters in the United States have criticized the US’s plans for Tehran as a threat to Israel after decapitating Hezbollah’s leaders and apparently reducing the military capabilities of the Iran-backed group based in Lebanon. I believe there has never been a better time to try to thwart a nuclear program. They say they may only have weeks left to make the bomb.
But there are questions about how far Israel can push back on its plans, given that the facilities are scattered and deep underground. Many experts also fear that such an attack could set the United States into a protracted apocalyptic war.
President Trump has sought to portray Biden and Harris as weak and appears to be urging Netanyahu to do so. “What do you think about Iran?” President Trump asked an audience at a town hall in the battleground state of North Carolina on Friday. “Are you going to attack Iran? And (Biden) says, ‘As long as we don’t attack Iran.’ That’s what you want to hit, right? I said, “I think he got it wrong.” Isn’t that what you should bash?
The repercussions in the United States from the October 7 attacks were far more severe than their impact on the presidential election. They also had a traumatic impact on American Jews.
The idea that Israel is a safe haven for the world’s Jewish diaspora has been undermined by attacks on kibbutzim and music festivals by Hamas terrorists from Gaza. Amid anti-Semitism sparked by attacks by Hamas and some protests against Israel’s response, many American Jews feel unsafe in their homes. A wave of pro-Palestinian protests at U.S. universities has at times reached the point of anti-Semitism.
Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO of the Anti-Defamation League, told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that he has never seen such a surge in hate and anti-Semitic conspiracy theories in the United States. I warned you. “We’re honoring and commemorating this solemn anniversary of 1,200 people being murdered just because they were Jewish, right?” Greenblatt told Dana Bash. “They were massacred, tortured, killed, kidnapped. Yet here in the United States, it sparked a tsunami of anti-Jewish hatred.”
Since the Oct. 7 attacks, there have been more than 10,000 anti-Semitic incidents in the United States, including more than 8,000 incidents of verbal and written harassment, more than 1,800 incidents of vandalism, and more than 1,800 incidents of vandalism, according to the ADL. It includes more than 150 cases of physical assault.
Trump is also contributing to the anxiety. The former president said Jewish voters who support Biden and Harris should undergo a “head check” and that Jewish voters would be partly to blame if the president loses next month, saying they were against Israel and the United States. He used an anti-Semitic metaphor about dual loyalty.
What’s next?
The next occupant of the White House will inherit one of the most dangerous crises facing a modern president.
If Harris wins, she will have to develop her own policy on the war, having been reluctant to express her views outside the constraints of Biden’s approach. She faces a similar test of her authority, as well as a complicated test from the conflicting US and Israeli interests that have bedeviled Biden, as there seems little chance of an end to the escalating war in the coming months. There is a high possibility that it will.
Additionally, while President Trump is seen as likely to offer Prime Minister Netanyahu a blank slate, his antipathy toward U.S. involvement in foreign wars, particularly in the Middle East, suggests that he would not be able to do so if he remains president. It may mean being less receptive to escalation when action could be taken. influence his own political positions.
Regardless of what happens next month, the United States will remain deeply entangled in the new realities of the Middle East beyond October 7, 2023.
