October started with some depressing developments. Hurricane Helen hit parts of the Gulf Coast and Appalachia, killing more than 200 people. Iran attacks Israel with missiles, sparking a terrifying escalation to a wider Middle East war. Longshoremen on the eastern and Gulf coasts went on strike, threatening product shortages and rising prices.
“October surprises” are usually negative and can affect a presidential election by dragging one candidate down at a time when swing voters are making decisions. By most views, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, the representative of the incumbent party that controls the White House, will have the most to lose in the disturbing development.
However, some positive surprises in October quickly offset some negative surprises. The striking longshoremen returned to work after just three days, and union members and the employer agreed to continue negotiations on several issues. A strike is still possible, but it won’t happen until well after the November election is removed from the electoral equation. Voters in the affected areas will not face a banana shortage when they go to the polls.
Hurricane Helen, as bad as it was, probably won’t be an election issue. Both President Biden and Vice President Harris have toured the region and are certain to send much-needed emergency relief supplies to the affected areas.
President Joe Biden speaks as U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R), Taylor County, Fla., Emergency Management Director John Luke responds to the damage caused by Hurricane Helen in Keaton Beach, Fla., Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024. Receive an explanation. -Florida, yes, we’re watching. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
There’s a fake MAGA meme that says the Biden administration can’t pay for relief efforts because it ran out of money to detain illegal immigrants, as if elected politicians trying to keep their party in power are that stupid. It seems like there is. Fact-checkers have debunked this claim, while budget experts say the need for disaster relief funding is inherently unpredictable and Congress often approves funds on an as-needed basis. Pointed out. The challenge in Biden vs. Harris is primarily making sure residents of the potential battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia are fully aware that the federal government has their backs.
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Another positive surprise was September’s jobs report, which easily beat expectations and showed the economy remains strong. Economists had expected companies to add about 150,000 new jobs in September. In reality, the number increased by 254,000. Bank of America called it an “A+ jobs report.” Capitol Economics called it a “blockbuster” print. Economist Ed Yardeni said the jobs news “should bury any looming recession scenario.”
As a sitting member of Congress, Harris should be in a strong position on the economic front. Growth has been sustained while elevated inflation is returning to normal levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) started lowering interest rates, which provided a tailwind. The Yahoo Finance Bidennomics Report Card rates the current economy an A-, with the only rating being that real profits are moderate, with high prices still reducing purchasing power compared to the economy under previous presidents. . But that too is improving.
the story continues
Some voters still remember the decline in inflation during President Trump’s four years in office, and see it as something special about his approach to the economy. But above all, that is only circumstantial, given that the pre-coronavirus years were disinflationary and the post-coronavirus years will be even hotter. Voters certainly like Harris’ economic policies, with some polls showing that she has completely erased the strong economic advantage that Trump once held. are.
Now, an unfortunate surprise, but this isn’t all that surprising. More disaster is likely in the Middle East as Israel prepares to retaliate for the October 1 Iranian missile attack. The Israelis could attack in several ways. One approach that could still disrupt the US election would be an attack on the energy infrastructure that allows Iran to export oil to global markets. Oil prices have already soared by about $5 a barrel on concerns that this could happen, and they would rise even more significantly if that were to happen. In response, Iran may seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21% of the world’s oil flows. That would be an ugly scenario for energy markets and gasoline buyers.
Israel could take a different course, including targeting Iran’s nuclear weapons program, leadership targets, and military infrastructure. There is no doubt that the Biden administration is pressuring Israel to remove oil facilities from the target list in the final weeks of the election to keep gasoline prices out of the conversation. Until last week, gas prices were falling toward their lowest level since 2021, averaging just $3 a gallon nationwide. Biden and Harris want to make sure gas prices continue their downward trend.
A lot happened during the first few days of October. What else will happen before Election Day? Another inflation report is due out and is very likely to show continued stabilization in prices. The next jobs report will be released four days before election day, but the story of a resilient economy is unlikely to change. Decisions regarding the next Fed meeting and further rate cuts will likely be made after the voting date. It is unlikely that there will be any economic surprises within the next month.
President Trump has been the target of two assassination attempts in three months, and no one knows if the Secret Service has found a way to plug the hole. Trump, 78, also has a tendency to misspell words and mix up names, which can lead to meme-like embarrassments. Foreign governments are clearly trying to hack the campaigns of both candidates, and having unearthed strong material before, they will likely do so again.
It may seem prudent to say that perhaps the biggest surprise in the coming weeks will be no surprise at all. But we have already exceeded the allotment for one election cycle.
Correction: This article originally stated that the next jobs report would not be released until after Election Day, Nov. 5. In fact, the next jobs report is scheduled for November 1st.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @rickjnewman.
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