A coup is underway in Bogotá, Colombia. Colombian President Gustavo Petro says so.
On October 8, Petro claimed on social media that an attempt to overthrow the government was underway. “The coup has begun,” he wrote on his X profile.
Petro’s accusations came after Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) announced it was opening an investigation into the financing of the 2022 presidential campaign for alleged violations of spending limits.
Experts say the strong rhetoric comes as Mr. Petro struggles to maintain control midway through his four-year term, as a series of scandals threaten to overshadow Colombia’s first left-wing presidency. He points out that this is the latest evidence that this is the case.
The president denies the accusations, instead labeling them as attempts by political opponents to manipulate the CNE and remove him from power.
“The jurisdiction of the President of the Republic of Colombia has been destroyed. Today, the first step of a coup d’état against me as constitutional president has been taken. It will be the greatest insult to principle,” Petro said in a speech shared on social media on October 8th.
Mr. Petro, a former guerrilla and Colombia’s first left-wing leader, described the CNE as “an administrative authority captured by the opposition, who are trying to question my integrity at all costs.” It added that the group had “prepared charges” against him. Following the CNE’s decision to investigate Petro, Petro called on his supporters to take to the streets to denounce the alleged coup.
Opposition leaders dismissed the president’s claims, pointing out that the CNE has a constitutional right to investigate potential financial wrongdoing.
Notably, Colombia’s past two presidents, conservative Iván Duque and Juan Manuel Santos, were elected from the CNE while in office, as was centrist Ernesto Samper in the late 1990s. He was exposed to a similar investigation.
focused on political issues
Petro’s coup claims have stirred debate in Colombia’s already fractious political situation and shed light on the strength and stability, or lack thereof, of Petro’s government.
The president’s strategy comes with risks. By casting institutional checks as political attacks, Mr. Petro risks alienating his moderate supporters and deepening the rift between his administration and other branches of government.
“Petro is digging his own grave, and against all advice he insists on continuing to dig his own grave. For Petro, there is no middle ground. Those who do not cooperate with him are abetting a coup.” Sergio Guzmán, political analyst and director of the Colombian Risk Analysis Consultancy Group, told Al Jazeera.
Petro came to power in August 2022, backed by Colombian voters’ demands for political change.
His election signaled a political shift in a country that has historically shunned left-wing political movements because of their links to Colombia’s decades-long armed conflict.
He has vowed to reduce inequality and implement a series of social, economic, labor and political reforms during his term, but his government has so far struggled to deliver.
Mr. Guzmán blames, in part, the blame for Petro’s policy stagnation on hostile political relations with rival political groups.
“The government seems to have been focusing much more on political policy, and the fundamental problem is that the government has not taken any other plans to avoid blaming the opposition and this soft coup on its own bad management. ” Guzman explained.
The CNE investigation is by no means a death sentence for the Petro government, as the CNE itself cannot remove the president from office. If the investigation turns up serious campaign finance violations, the case could be referred to the Congressional Complaints Committee, opening the door to legal and political consequences ranging from fines to court action.
“The Colombian Indictment Commission has never convicted a president in its history. I’m not very confident that this will absolutely lead to anything,” Guzmán added.
A checkered tenure
Petro’s coup claims are the latest chapter in a regime defined by ambition and adversity, whether political maneuvering or genuine fear.
The president is no stranger to controversy. Since taking power, Colombia’s president has spent his time in office beset by scandals and political crises.
Following his arrest last summer, his son Nicholas Petro was indicted on money laundering charges in January. His son admitted to accepting money from drug traffickers to fund his father’s campaign along the Caribbean coast.
Nicholas said his father was unaware of the payment.
Additionally, audio leaked last year appears to show members of Petro’s government threatening to release damning information about campaign finance. The scandal led to the dismissal of the then-chief of staff and the ambassador to Venezuela.
This was a sign of widespread confusion within the Petro regime. Petro has frequently reshuffled his cabinet, replacing key figures three times.
This means that in just over two years, 38 different ministers have taken office in a cabinet containing 19 ministerial seats. In contrast, his predecessor, Ivan Duque, appointed 40 different ministers during his four-year term.
Mr. Petro has also struggled to implement core elements of his policy. One of his most prominent promises is to bring “complete peace” to Colombia by ending its 60-year civil war.
But many of his negotiations with armed groups have failed as ceasefires have been broken and violence continues.
Meanwhile, he has struggled to garner support for his bill in Congress. While he has been able to push through pension and tax reforms, other reforms, including his health care plan, have stalled amid opposition.
“What all of this shows is how stalled this government is, and how little room for maneuver there really is. No one is taking this seriously anymore,” he told the U.S. Will Freeman, a Latin American studies fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera.
Nevertheless, Petro’s approval rating has remained steady, hovering around the 30 percent level for several months, despite the Petro’s government’s obstacles.
Mr. Guzman and Mr. Freeman acknowledged that Petro still faces an uphill battle to accomplish its legislative agenda. This is due to the scale of his ambitions and the repeated political complexities his administration has faced.
Freeman added that Petro is likely to “spend the remainder of his term fairly ineffectively.”
a difficult road ahead
Guzman added that the president’s controversial nature and tendency to discredit much of the criticism leveled at him has affected his credibility at home and abroad.
“For some international observers, the situation has gone from concern to derision. This is serious because it slightly undermines the legitimacy of the accusations made by the president,” he said.
But Petro’s government is trying to cast doubt on the legitimacy of his latest scandal.
One of Petro’s lawyers, Hector Carvajal, told local radio station Blue Radio that the president’s lawyers do not accept the CNE’s accusations, arguing that they are outside Colombia’s legal framework.
Still, Carvajal emphasized the seriousness of the lawsuit.
“The imposition of a fine on the president of the republic is significant, because a precedent of this kind cannot be set in this country,” Carvajal said.
Many Petro supporters also believe the accusations against the president are exaggerated.
Economist Robinson Duarte, who voted for Petro in 2022, told Al Jazeera: “Compared to previous governments,[the scandal]is incomparable.” He claimed the accusations were part of a smear campaign.
“The main point of emphasizing politicians is to equate government to tell people not to have hope in democracy because politicians are all the same and they all steal. When it spreads, people stop participating. They stop believing.”
Colombia’s political future under Petro’s government remains uncertain. Although the president continues to enjoy support from key sectors, particularly marginalized communities and left-wing groups, some experts question his ability to govern effectively.
“It will be difficult for the Petro government to achieve everything it has promised. It will also be difficult to govern because these institutions have already been built and are mainly occupied by people close to the opposition.” said Duarte.
“Perhaps Peter did not realize how difficult it would be to govern and therefore how difficult it would be to be successful.”
