American companies already dominate global stock markets in terms of size. This trend is largely expected to continue, according to a new chart from JPMorgan Asset Management. The company attributes the boom to artificial intelligence.
In JPM’s 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions released on Monday, the team predicted that the market capitalization share of U.S. companies in total global stock markets will decline from 64% now to 60% in 2037. . The United States (green) will maintain a significant lead over China (red), the estimated second-largest global stock market share.
Monika Issar, global head of multi-asset and portfolio solutions at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Yahoo Finance in a media roundtable on Monday that the benefits of artificial intelligence are helping the few dominating the market. He said the U.S. will continue to lead in market capitalization share as it expands beyond big technology companies. Over the past year, companies from a variety of industries have come together.
Isar cited two reasons for the forecast: revenue generation and improved profit margins. The first will come from money funneled into AI that benefits companies outside of Big Tech. This is deployed when tech companies buy AI chips from the likes of Nvidia (NVDA), which require more power, and these AI operators are increasingly used by companies in the utilities (XLU) and energy (XLE) sectors. and will be forced to spend funds.
U.S. companies should see higher profit margins because AI makes companies more efficient, eliminates the most menial tasks, and ultimately reduces costs.
“It’s primarily going to be the U.S. and then obviously Europe, because we’re starting to see adoption there,” Isar said.
To put current U.S. dominance into perspective, Nvidia’s (NVDA) market capitalization alone is larger than most other G7 countries, Thorsten Slok, chief global economist at Apollo, said in a research note on Thursday. . (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
Indeed, Sløk pointed out that this could be a risk for the market as a whole.
“The global stock market, including retirement allocations to stocks, is essentially being leveraged by Nvidia,” Throck wrote. “Let’s hope NVIDIA’s value doesn’t drop significantly.”
But others have a more optimistic view of the dominance of AI superpowers. In a recent research note detailing why the S&P 500 (^GSPC) could exceed an average annual return of 10% over the next 10 years, Datatrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote that the U.S. He pointed out that Japan is at the forefront of AI implementation and is in a favorable position to gain an advantage. We are in the midst of a “global adoption” of technology.
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Collas believes that non-U.S. tech companies will emerge over the next decade, including major tech companies such as Apple (AAPL), Nvidia, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which currently lead the U.S. market share. He wrote that there is a possibility that it could take over the company’s position. , GOOG), and META are “nearly zero.”
“The United States continues to dominate the world’s venture capital,” Collas wrote. “If a new U.S. business ends up threatening that dominance, it will undoubtedly go public, be included in the S&P 500, and become a driver of future profits.”
A flag is placed outside Christ Chapel in Zebulon, Georgia, for a campaign rally for former U.S. president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on October 23, 2024. (YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images) · YASUYOSHI CHIBA via Getty Images
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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